Hormuz Closure Sends Crop Prices to Three-Year High as Russia and China Move to Fill Fertilizer Gap
With 3.9 million tonnes of Gulf urea stranded, the Hormuz disruption is generating a food security shock that extends well beyond its impact on oil markets.
Crop prices hit a three-year high as of Thursday (2026-07-24), as the Strait of Hormuz closure and intensifying disruptions to Black Sea grain trade tightened agricultural markets simultaneously, OilPrice.com reported. The move in food commodities reflects a fertilizer supply shock extending beyond the crude oil and LNG disruptions that have dominated market attention since the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran began.7
Since the strait closed to shipping earlier this year, approximately 3.9 million tonnes of urea exports, or around 30 percent of the region's annual fertilizer shipments, have been effectively blockaded, OilPrice.com reported Thursday (2026-07-24). Anadolu Agency estimated in March (2026) that the disruptions could cut the global fertilizer supply chain by 33 percent; the July blockade figures suggest that forecast was not far off.7,2
The International Energy Agency warned on Tuesday (2026-07-22) that escalating Middle East hostilities were heightening risks to global energy security, according to Zawya, with IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol cited in the statement. By then, a coordinated strategic reserve release announced on March 11 (2026-03-11) had already delivered roughly 290 million barrels of the 400 million committed to global markets, according to the same report.6
ICE Brent crude front-month traded at $90.15 per barrel on Wednesday (2026-07-29), still elevated despite those reserve deliveries. JKM Asian LNG traded at $21.32 per MMBtu on the same day. The gap between the political effort to stabilize supply and the physical market reality remains wide. [live prices]
The strait previously handled roughly 20 percent of global oil supply, about a quarter of worldwide seaborne oil trade, and nearly a fifth of global LNG trade, OGJ reported on Monday (2026-06-08). In 2025, about 18.2 million barrels per day of crude oil and refined products moved through the corridor. EIA estimates cited in the same report showed Middle East crude production shut-ins averaging 10.5 million b/d in April (2026) and expected to peak near 10.8 million b/d in May as storage capacity filled.4
Asian economies carry the heaviest oil exposure. They account for nearly 80 percent of Hormuz oil flows, with China importing close to 5 million b/d through the strait and India, Japan, and South Korea each taking roughly 2 million b/d, OGJ reported Monday (2026-06-08). Available bypass capacity through Saudi Aramco's East-West pipeline and the UAE's Fujairah terminal totals roughly 3.5 million b/d of effective unused throughput, EIA data from Thursday (2026-05-21) show — a meaningful but partial offset for crude, and no substitute for the LNG and fertilizer shipments that have no comparable overland route.4,1
The fertilizer disruption has created an opening for geopolitical competition. War on the Rocks argued in April (2026-04-13) that curtailed nitrogen fertilizer shipments through Hormuz risked creating a "food vacuum" that strategic competitors of the United States would move to fill, with the geoeconomic window described as "tilted in favor of Iran, Russia, and China." OilPrice.com reported on Monday (2026-05-25) that Russia and China were already intensifying their positioning in markets affected by the supply disruption.5,3
A United Nations report cited by OilPrice.com on Thursday (2026-07-24) warned that rising energy and fertilizer prices, driven by the Iran conflict and Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, could push additional millions of people into food insecurity. Developing nations that relied on Gulf fertilizer exports are the most exposed.7
Saudi Aramco's pipeline and the UAE's Fujairah link can reroute crude. But they cannot reroute urea, sulfur, or phosphate. Without a resolution to the Hormuz closure, Gulf fertilizer flows remain stranded; in the meantime, Russia's expanding trade ties with food-deficit developing nations are likely to prove more durable than any strategic reserve barrel release.1,5,3