Crude traders add $19 billion in fresh contracts as Hormuz throughput stays stranded
J.P. Morgan data show $19 billion in new crude contracts placed last week even as Strait of Hormuz confirmed throughput stays at 5.1 million barrels per day.
J.P. Morgan's Commodities Research team reported late Tuesday (2026-07-28) that estimated open interest across energy markets had jumped six percent, or $51 billion week-on-week, to $873 billion — and the breakdown is more informative than the headline number. Brent crude front-month and WTI front-month both gained roughly 16 percent over the same period, with TTF front-month up 14 percent, explaining a large part of the notional expansion. But J.P. Morgan's analysts separately identified $19 billion in contract-based inflows, capital entering via new positions rather than existing contracts repricing higher.6
That distinction shapes how durable this rally might be. Price-driven open interest can unwind quickly in a reversal. New contract capital is a different kind of commitment, and $19 billion in a single week is a substantial entry for a market whose consensus direction, across 19 tracked signals, still leans bearish by a ratio of roughly two-to-one. Something is pulling fresh money into crude at a time when most analysts expect further weakness.6
Brent crude front-month traded at $90.15 per barrel as of Wednesday (2026-07-29), recovering sharply from around $73.31 at which the August contract was settling near the end of June (2026-06-30), when Brent was in its third consecutive monthly decline and tracking toward a roughly 20 percent June loss.6,3
Naeem Aslam, CIO at Zaye Capital Markets, noted in an analysis sent to Rigzone on Wednesday (2026-07-29) that a 3.3 million barrel draw in U.S. crude inventories for the week ending July 24 (2026-07-24) had provided additional physical support. Aslam also flagged that the Federal Open Market Committee rate decision that day would shape the near-term trajectory through the dollar and financing conditions, with a hawkish message capable of strengthening the dollar and cooling demand expectations. The DXY index subsequently fell 0.92 percent to 100.02 by Thursday (2026-07-30), providing a further tailwind for dollar-denominated crude.6
Strait of Hormuz throughput, meanwhile, has not recovered as widely assumed. A J.P. Morgan report sent to Rigzone on Friday (2026-07-18) noted that the traffic recovery which had begun in early June "abruptly stalled." Confirmed flows had fallen to just 5.1 million barrels per day. The EIA estimated roughly 20 million barrels per day passed through the Strait in 2024, representing about 20 percent of global petroleum liquids consumption. Flows at 5.1 million barrels per day are roughly a quarter of that baseline.4,5
Brent front-month briefly touched $91.41 intraday on July 19 (2026-07-19) when U.S.-Iran hostilities intensified, settling at $90.56, up 2.8 percent from the prior session's close of $88.10. WTI front-month rose 2.4 percent to $84.49 the same session. The moves were significant but brief. The pricing pattern fits traders treating Hormuz risk as an event spike rather than a sustained throughput constraint — yet if 5.1 million barrels per day is the new operating rate rather than a temporary dip, the market has not priced that duration into current levels.5
TTF front-month fell 3.90 percent to €58.16 per megawatt-hour by Thursday (2026-07-30), diverging sharply from crude's continued bid. European gas weakness alongside crude strength points to a market reading this as a geopolitical supply disruption in crude-heavy Persian Gulf flows, not a broad energy demand signal. That reading supports the Hormuz-throughput interpretation over a demand-recovery story.6
The prior volatility provides necessary context. Both Brent and WTI ended May 2026 more than 17 percent lower, Brent fell roughly 20 percent in June, yet both benchmarks still trade around 40 percent above their pre-conflict levels from late February. Analysts had expected demand to rebound strongly and draw down inventories that were heavily depleted during the conflict period. Whether the 3.3 million barrel weekly draw from the July 24 (2026-07-24) EIA data is the start of that normalization or a seasonal blip is unresolved.1,26
The next confirmed Strait of Hormuz flow reading will do more than the FOMC statement to validate or discredit the fresh-money positioning J.P. Morgan identified. Throughput staying near 5.1 million barrels per day would underpin the physical market that those $19 billion in new contracts are already positioned for. A recovery toward historical throughput levels would expose those contracts to a sharp unwind.4,6