NYMEX Heating Oil Jumps Nearly 4% as Hormuz Supply Disruption Keeps Petroleum Products Firm
A near-4% surge in NYMEX heating oil front-month on July 29 signals product markets are tightening faster than crude, with US gasoline stocks still roughly 6% below seasonal norms.
NYMEX heating oil front-month jumped nearly 4% to $4.26 a gallon on July 29 (2026-07-29), the strongest single-session move across the petroleum complex, while RBOB gasoline front-month added a more restrained 0.3% to hold at $3.38 a gallon. ICE Brent crude front-month gained 2.85% to $87.47 a barrel in the same session; NYMEX WTI front-month dipped 0.42% to $82.05. Crude mixed, products firm.5,6
The divergence reflects a supply dislocation that has accumulated over months. The EIA's July 15 (2026-07-15) assessment described second-quarter 2026 petroleum markets as characterised by continued disruptions to crude and product flows through the Strait of Hormuz, contributing to higher and more volatile prices through most of the quarter. US crude imports fell to 7.8 million barrels per day in May 2026, the weakest level since October 2017, according to ING analysis published on June 11 (2026-06-11). Less crude reaching US refineries compressed product output, and product inventories bore the brunt of that squeeze.5,4
J.P. Morgan analysts wrote on July 20 (2026-07-20) that US gasoline had "performed strongly, reflecting low inventories, refinery disruptions and the impact of higher crude and freight costs." The same note put US ultra-low-sulphur diesel gains at 124% for the year — context that makes July 29's heating oil surge look like continuation rather than an outlier.7
Yet crude inventories held up better than the import shortfall implied. Norman Liebke, FX and commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, described the dynamic in early June (2026-06-08): "This can likely be explained by the fact that oil inventories are lasting longer than expected, even though inventories of some oil products have already fallen significantly." The gap between crude resilience and product tightness is what has kept RBOB front-month supported through this disruption cycle.3
The most recent EIA weekly data provided bulls something more concrete. Crude inventories drew by 1.7 million barrels in the week to mid-July, exceeding analyst expectations, a draw that helped September WTI crude post its strongest weekly gain in months. After opening that week near $72.50, prices climbed above $80 before easing slightly into Thursday July 16 (2026-07-16)'s close, finishing up over 11% on the week.6
ICE Brent front-month has since recovered to $87.47 a barrel as of July 29 (2026-07-29). That sits well below the $107-plus level recorded in mid-May (2026-05-15), when traders were pricing Hormuz disruption risk against projections of gradual market loosening into 2027. The partial retreat in crude has not eased product tightness proportionally, which keeps RBOB's floor visible even on sessions where gasoline underperforms heating oil.2
ING warned on June 11 (2026-06-11) that oil prices were underpricing prolonged Hormuz risk. That call predated September WTI's 11% weekly surge and remains relevant while Hormuz disruptions stay unresolved. EIA data from May 20 (2026-05-20) showed gasoline stocks running approximately 6% below the five-year seasonal average; given subsequent crude import weakness and the refinery disruptions cited by J.P. Morgan in July, current stock levels are unlikely to have improved materially.4,1,7
The consensus on RBOB front-month is closely divided, with bullish and bearish weights nearly matched across 15 tracked indicators. Bearish scenarios are not trivial. A Hormuz normalisation, even partial, would ease crude import flows, allow refinery throughput to recover and let product inventories rebuild. Summer driving demand has not been flagged in recent analyst commentary as a fresh upside catalyst, leaving the gasoline bid entirely dependent on the supply side.1,6
The next EIA weekly petroleum status report is the nearest hard data point. If crude inventories draw again and gasoline stocks remain below seasonal norms, RBOB's current positioning holds. A second consecutive draw near the 1.7-million-barrel scale recorded in mid-July, alongside continued Hormuz uncertainty, would test whether September WTI's 11% weekly rally represented durable repricing or a fast squeeze that fades once supply fears ease.6