BloombergNEF Flags 42 GW Forecast Gap as PJM Data Center Load Reaches 16 GW
Persistent underestimation of U.S. data center growth has concentrated in PJM, where a capacity deficit and widening forecast uncertainty point to sustained supply pressure.
BloombergNEF's latest data center demand model, published Tuesday (2026-07-28), puts the PJM Interconnection at roughly 16 gigawatts of data center load by end of 2025, more than any other U.S. grid region, and concludes that analysts have been underestimating the buildout almost everywhere.6
The admission carries weight. Installed U.S. data center capacity ended last year at roughly 47 GW, 16% above BNEF's own prior forecast, and the report said almost all U.S. regions exceeded expectations. BNEF Senior Associate Nathalie Limandibhratha noted Wednesday (2026-07-22) that a 1-gigawatt project was considered large a year ago. The firm's current pipeline holds more than 70 projects of that scale, with some running to multiple gigawatts.6
The forecasting problem is unusually wide. BNEF's two main scenarios for U.S. data center electricity demand by 2030 diverge by 42 GW — a gap that reflects genuine uncertainty about chip delivery timelines, build-out pace, and interconnection queue clearance rates. A chip-delivery-based scenario finds 207 GW of U.S. data center demand by 2033, the firm said Wednesday (2026-07-22).6
The 16 GW figure in PJM sits against a grid that has failed for three consecutive years to secure enough future supply commitments. PJM's most recent capacity auction came up 6.8 GW short, Oilprice.com reported, extending a shortfall the grid operator has not resolved as new load has accelerated.5
The operational stress was visible in late June. During the heat wave in the week of June 29 (2026-06-29), PJM saw electricity demand surge to roughly 163 GW and power prices triple, with data centers cited as a material contributor, according to Oilprice.com. PJM Western Hub spot power stood at $62.49 per megawatthour on Tuesday (2026-07-28).3
Texas provides a calibration point for how far estimates can miss. BNEF had forecast 7.4 GW of Texas data center capacity; actual demand was estimated at 8.9 GW by end of 2025, the BNEF report said, a 1.5 GW gap in a state with substantially more generation headroom than PJM. Almost all U.S. regions ended 2025 with more data center capacity than BNEF had anticipated, with Texas accounting for the largest single difference between forecast and actual build.6
PJM's data center exposure reflects Virginia's singular position in the U.S. commercial power market. EIA data show commercial electricity sales in Virginia climbed by nearly 30 million MWh between 2019 and 2025, the fastest growth rate of any state except Texas, which is far larger. Data center concentration in northern Virginia is the driver.4
The IEA has estimated that data centers now account for roughly half of all incremental U.S. electricity demand growth. Globally, electricity demand from data centers rose 17% in 2025, the agency said, with AI-focused facilities expanding at 50% in the same period.1
Supply response remains the pressure point. Only 13% of the capacity that filed interconnection requests between 2000 and 2019 had reached commercial operation by end of 2024, with 77% of requests eventually withdrawn, according to data cited by Qz.com. The U.S. needs roughly 5,000 miles of new high-voltage transmission to support load growth of this scale, the same source reported.1
BofA analysts have estimated data centers could add roughly 125 GW of U.S. electric load over the period ahead. BNEF's base case is deliberately conservative, Limandibhratha said Wednesday (2026-07-22), sitting in the middle of third-party estimates. Yet even that middle-of-the-road view has already been exceeded by actual installed capacity in prior forecast cycles.6
PJM's November 2025 winter outlook projected 180,800 MW of operational capacity against a forecasted peak of around 145,700 MW, which the operator flagged as a potential new winter record after an all-time high of 143,700 MW was reached in January (2025). PJM said resources were adequate under expected conditions, but explicitly noted that electricity demand continues to outpace new resource additions and that generator performance is crucial.2
The pace of pipeline growth is what distinguishes this cycle. Limandibhratha said Wednesday (2026-07-22) that BNEF tracked about 100 GW of project capacity additions in the past year alone. Most will not clear interconnection queues. But if even a fraction clears in a region already running a multi-gigawatt capacity deficit, PJM's mid-decade reserve margins narrow further than current auction results imply.6