China's July Crude Imports Track Toward 7.8 Million Barrels a Day After June's Decade Low
Kpler data shows Chinese refiners staging a partial recovery from June's Hormuz-driven import collapse, as ICE Brent retreats to $86 from above-$100 levels seen just days ago.
China's crude oil imports are running at a daily average of 7.8 million barrels in July, according to Kpler calculations cited by Bloomberg on Monday (2026-07-27), a partial recovery from what turned out to be the worst import month for Chinese refiners in over a decade.6
June set the floor. Official Chinese customs data released on Tuesday (2026-07-14) showed overall imports collapsing 41.3% year-on-year to 29.27 million tons, or 7.12 million barrels per day. Kpler's own vessel-tracking measure put the monthly average lower, at 6.2 million barrels a day, a rate Bloomberg said last matched in November 2015. The gap between the official and vessel-tracking figures likely reflects timing differences in how shipments are counted, but both point to the same severe contraction.4,6
The driver was the Strait of Hormuz. Disruption to flows through the chokepoint, which in 2022 carried 21 million barrels a day or roughly 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption, pushed crude prices to levels that stripped refining margins and forced Chinese buyers to draw down strategic reserves rather than buy at market.1
Refinery run rates confirmed the retreat. Oilchem data cited by Reuters showed Chinese run rates dropping to 57.72% of capacity in June, down 3.28 percentage points from May, as refiners burned stockpiled crude rather than import fresh barrels.4
China entered the crisis with significant reserves built before the Iran conflict began. In the twelve months before hostilities, the country imported 11 to 13 million barrels a day each month, IEA estimates show. Prices and supply uncertainty during the Hormuz disruption made importing unprofitable for Chinese refiners, reducing seaborne purchases even as underlying demand held up.2,4
The July rebound reflects refiners buying more Russian crude and seeking alternative origins as Hormuz flows partially recover. Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale has emerged among the supply sources attracting Asian buyer interest as the search for non-Gulf barrels intensified, Bloomberg reported.6
ICE Brent crude front-month traded at $86.48 a barrel on Tuesday (2026-07-28), having retreated sharply from levels above $100 that prevailed just days earlier. On Sunday (2026-07-26), Indian crude oil prices surged 11% to $103.33 a barrel, a two-month high, with global Brent also crossing $100 amid continued Red Sea disruptions, according to Energy Economic Times. The speed of the pullback suggests traders are partially pricing in supply normalization, though the physical market has not yet confirmed it.5
But the price drop may be getting ahead of the operational situation. ETO Markets chief investment officer Jonathan Barratt said on Sunday (2026-07-12) that ICE Brent could climb to $85-$87 a barrel if Hormuz uncertainty persists, a range the market breached, exceeded sharply, then fell back through within a matter of weeks.3
IEA estimates that even after mines are cleared, a minimum of two to three months will be needed to re-establish steady Gulf export operations, covering the time to exit oil-laden tankers, reposition ballast tonnage, and rebuild scheduling confidence among carriers.2
Saudi Aramco's East-West crude pipeline, with capacity of up to 7 million barrels a day, and the UAE's 1.5 million barrel-a-day Fujairah bypass link provide partial alternatives to Hormuz. But together they fall far short of replacing full strait flows. IEA projects global oil supply declining by 3.9 million barrels per day on average across 2026, to 102.2 million barrels per day, even if flows gradually resume in the third quarter.1,2
The July Kpler estimate, if it holds through month-end, will represent a reversal of the sequential monthly decline that bottomed in June. Whether refiners lock in further barrels above the 7.8 million barrel daily rate — or whether the Brent pullback from $100-plus to $86 has yet to translate into fresh purchasing — is what August loading programs from Gulf producers will reveal.6,2