Algeria Hosts OPEC+ Talks as Bloc Lifts June Quotas 188,000 bpd Despite Kazakhstan's 20% Slump

Algeria Hosts OPEC+ Talks as Bloc Lifts June Quotas 188,000 bpd Despite Kazakhstan's 20% Slump Seven producers raised combined quotas after UAE departure while Kazakhstan's Q1 production fell to 80% of year-earlier levels and Hormuz blocks 20 mb/d. Algerian energy minister Arkab received a delegation from the National Union of Petroleum, Gas, and Chemical Workers as Algeria navigated its position in a diminished OPEC+ alliance. Seven member countries agreed to raise combined production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day in June after the United Arab Emirates departed amid the Middle East conflict. Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia, and Saudi Arabia were named as participants.¹ Algeria's role extends beyond crude. The country's pipeline gas flows to southern Europe give it a dual function. Algerian supply decisions affect both crude oil markets and European gas prices, particularly Italian and Spanish power costs where gas-fired plants set marginal prices.¹ The quota increase is marginal. Nearly 20 million barrels per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, the IEA reported. A 188,000 bpd adjustment cannot offset a chokepoint closure measured in millions. The UAE's exit highlighted long-standing quota disagreements within OPEC+.¹ Kazakhstan's Q1 numbers expose the delivery gap. Energy Minister Akkenzhenov reported output of 19.7 million tonnes, just 80.2% of year-earlier levels. Exports totalled 15.3 million tonnes, 78.5% year-on-year. OPEC data show crude production rose 239,000 bpd in 2025 to 1.78 million bpd. The 2026 reversal is steep. Proven reserves remain at 30 billion barrels, unchanged for a decade.¹ Globally, oil production increased 2.24 million bpd in 2025 to 74.85 million bpd, with OPEC+ at 55.9% of output. France signed a bilateral deal with the UAE for oil and gas supply. More than 60% of French refining capacity is offline from strikes and maintenance.^1,4³ Nigeria aims to reach 2.5 million bpd by 2026. China's crude imports fell around 20% year-on-year in April. Natural gas imports dropped roughly 13%. Coal power rose for the fourth consecutive month, narrowing the buyer pool for OPEC+ barrels.^5,2 Whether Algeria and the remaining members can deliver the volumes their quotas allow is the defining question. Kazakhstan's 20% Q1 shortfall suggests the gap between quota and deliverable capacity is widening at the moment every barrel matters most.¹