Japan's Crude Imports Hit Lowest Since 1979 as Hormuz Traffic Stays at 4% of Pre-War Levels
With Gulf shipping barely trickling and U.S. barrels covering only part of the gap, Japan's refiners face a prolonged supply reckoning.
Shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz were running at just 4% of their pre-war normal as of mid-June (2026-06-22), Japan NRG Weekly reported, five months after the Iran war began in February. Two tanker arrivals and a record U.S. export surge have not come close to restoring Japan's crude supply.4
The April import data tell the scale of the damage. Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry published monthly petroleum statistics on Friday (2026-05-29) showing the country imported 4.07 million kilolitres, roughly 850,000 barrels per day, of crude in April — a fall of 65.7% against the same month last year. Provisional Finance Ministry trade data, released the week of 2026-05-18, put the Middle East-specific decline at 67.2% year-on-year. The 3.843 million kiloliter April total was the lowest in Japanese records going back to 1979.2
Before the war, the Middle East supplied more than 90% of Japan's crude. Even with flows slashed to a fraction of pre-war levels, the region still accounted for 93.7% of what arrived in April, a figure that reflects how little alternative supply Japan had ready to deploy at scale. Saudi Arabian deliveries fell nearly 58% and UAE volumes dropped 69.4%, METI data showed.2
Two tanker arrivals gave refiners some physical relief. The Idemitsu Maru, a very large crude carrier with 2 million barrels of Saudi crude, was the first vessel to clear Hormuz and reach Japan since the war began, arriving in late May (week of 2026-05-25), Rigzone reported. On June 3 (2026-06-03), the Eneos Endeavor docked in Kagoshima with 2.15 million barrels of Kuwaiti and UAE crude before heading to the Negishi refinery in Yokohama, Japan NRG Weekly reported.1,4
But two shipments do not substitute for the consistent tanker traffic that Japan's pre-war crude budget required.4
The U.S. filled some of the gap. American oil sales to Japan hit a record 800,000 barrels per day in May, more than triple the pre-war monthly average, Japan NRG Weekly data showed. That is a meaningful shift in Atlantic Basin trade flows, but it still falls short of what Japan was drawing from Persian Gulf suppliers before February.4
Petrochemical feedstocks are also in short supply. Naphtha imports fell 47% year-on-year in April, Japan NRG Weekly reported, a shortfall with downstream consequences for Japan's manufacturing sector that have not yet fully worked through the system.4
On the power side, Japan has been burning more coal. The government announced on Friday (2026-03-27) it would temporarily lift restrictions on coal-fired generation to ease the energy shortfall, Jiji Press reported. Coal-power output has risen as gas-fired generation declined, with Middle East LNG scarcer and more expensive. JKM, the Asian LNG benchmark, traded at $21.43/MMBtu on Tuesday (2026-07-28).5,3
Japan is also drawing down strategic reserves as part of an IEA-coordinated global release of 400 million barrels of crude and oil products, METI data confirmed. Strategic stocks buy time; they do not replace commercial import flows.2
ICE Brent crude front-month fell to $85.22 per barrel on Tuesday (2026-07-28), down 1.64% on the session. Dubai crude, the benchmark most relevant to Gulf-origin barrels bought by Asian refiners, was at $78.93 per barrel.2
The April numbers expose the limits of Japan's diversification. The Middle East still supplied 93.7% of a dramatically reduced import total; Atlantic Basin barrels have helped but have not replaced Gulf volumes at scale. With Hormuz throughput at 4% of pre-war levels more than four months into the conflict, the pace at which that figure climbs is the signal Japan's refiners and their downstream customers are waiting on.4,2