US Plans to Quadruple Nuclear Capacity to 400 GW as Russia's Fuel Monopoly Drives European Breakaway

US Plans to Quadruple Nuclear Capacity to 400 GW as Russia's Fuel Monopoly Drives European Breakaway An $80 billion Westinghouse reactor deal and a European VVER fuel initiative target Moscow's dominance of the nuclear supply chain as uranium demand is forecast to double by 2040. Westinghouse is part of an $80 billion agreement with the US government to build new reactors for AI deployment, a contract that anchors America's nuclear ambitions for the next two decades. Washington wants to quadruple nuclear capacity from roughly 100 GW in 2024 to 400 GW by 2050. Bank of America sees nuclear energy as a $10 trillion market opportunity.² The fuel to run those reactors is the constraint. Russia dominates the cross-border business of nuclear fuel and technology. The Economist described Moscow's position in enrichment, fabrication, and reactor design as a "radioactive chokehold on the world" that most Western policymakers only recently began to take seriously.⁵ Four European utilities moved to break that dependence. Finland's Fortum, Czechia's CEZ, Hungary's MVM Paks, and Slovakia's Slovenske Elektrarne signed an agreement with Framatome to develop a fully European fuel for VVER-type reactors, based on a 100% European design and supply chain. The project targets the specific reactor type Russia has sold across Central and Eastern Europe.¹ On the supply side, Cameco produced about 17% of global uranium in 2024, second to Kazatomprom at 21%. Orano sits at 11%. The World Nuclear Association forecasts demand climbing 28% by 2030 and more than 100% by 2040. Cameco's 49% stake in Westinghouse connects the uranium producer directly to the US reactor buildout.² Spot uranium edged down to $85.95 per pound, part of a multi-month retreat from January's highs. Centrus Energy shares fell 5.4%, extending a year-to-date decline of 36.9% to $171.95, some 60.6% below the October 2025 high of $436. Q1 net income fell 63.2% year-on-year to $10.0 million.³ The US currently operates about 98 GW with very little capacity added in recent decades, EIA data show. Small modular reactors and microreactors under development aim to change the economics, but none have reached commercial deployment. Goldman Sachs added SMR capacity to its uranium model, forecasting a 17% upside to long-term demand estimates.^4,6 Deep Fission, a Berkeley startup, proposed burying reactors underground. The concept aims to reduce costs and simplify safety cases. But every new design still requires enriched fuel, and Western enrichment capacity is the bottleneck Russia exploits.⁷ The signal to watch is whether the European VVER fuel project delivers a qualified alternative before the next fuel loading cycle forces Central European operators back to Russian supply. The $80 billion US contract and the European breakaway initiative are moving in the same direction, but enrichment capacity cannot be built by announcement.^1,5