China's EV Charging Hits April Record as Sinopec Gasoline Sales Drop 8%
Goldman Sachs estimates China's gasoline consumption fell up to 20% year-on-year in April, as EV charging volumes surged 69% and crude imports hit an eight-year low.
China's electricity demand is forecast to grow 5.5% in 2026, with electric vehicle charging identified as a primary driver alongside manufacturing activity, the IEA's Electricity Mid-Year Update reported on Sunday (2026-07-26). The data landed as traders were already absorbing the scale of China's structural shift away from liquid fuels, a move now visible in hard import and consumption figures.5
Sinopec, China's largest refiner and fuel retailer, saw gasoline sales fall 8% year-over-year in April 2026 and diesel drop 6%, Reuters data showed. Goldman Sachs estimated that consumption of gasoline and related products may have fallen by as much as 20%.4 That gap between the retail sales figure and the Goldman estimate suggests something beyond the pump-level data: suppressed underlying demand that Sinopec's own network may not fully capture.
China Charging Alliance data showed EV charging volumes surged 69% year-over-year in April 2026, reaching a record high. IEA data show nearly 60% of new cars sold in China this year will be electrified. Each sale permanently removes future demand from the liquid fuel pool, compounding quarter by quarter.4,3
But the structural shift extends beyond new vehicle sales. Falling used-EV prices are pulling lower-income buyers into the electric fleet, accelerating turnover of older internal combustion vehicles. Canary Media reported on 2 April 2026 (2026-04-02) that 56% of used EVs in the US market had sold for $30,000 or less as of January 2026, with used EV transactions rising 35% between 2024 and 2025. Sharp depreciation in used EVs lowers the switching threshold for income segments that new-car prices cannot reach, pulling adoption forward faster than new-sale penetration rates alone suggest.1
China's crude import volumes reflect the combined effect. Imports plunged 29% year-over-year in May 2026 to 7.8 million barrels per day, the lowest level in eight years, oilprice.com reported. Apparent consumption of oil products had risen 5.5% in January-February 2026 before falling 0.3% in March 2026, Carbon Brief data showed, though the late Chinese New Year distorted that March comparison. Shipments then fell by over 40% year-on-year in the first three weeks of May, Carbon Brief added.4,2
Rail travel in China rose roughly 10% in March and April 2026, China Charging Alliance data showed, reflecting some modal shift from road transport. Yet the record EV charging volumes in April 2026 indicate a portion of the decline in liquid fuel use is structural. It will not reverse when oil supply normalises.4
ICE Brent crude front-month traded at $85.44 per barrel on Monday (2026-07-27), essentially flat on the session. Those prices have not yet adjusted for the possibility that China's demand recovery from the current supply shock will be shallower than historical elasticity would predict.
The bearish case on Chinese gasoline does not rest on a single quarter. With nearly 60% of new Chinese cars expected to be electrified this year, IEA data show, EV penetration is broad enough to weigh on aggregate fuel consumption even if economic activity accelerates. Still, the second-quarter 2026 data carry a material confound: Middle East disruptions pushed fuel prices sharply enough to compress demand well beyond any pure EV substitution effect.3,2
Sinopec's first-quarter 2026 oil product sales were up 4.8% year-on-year, Carbon Brief data showed, making the April reversal to minus-8% gasoline and minus-6% diesel all the more abrupt.2 The speed of that turn raises the question of how much of the swing was price-driven versus permanently structural.
Whether Sinopec's fuel sales recover in the third quarter of 2026 is the first clean test. A meaningful rebound toward prior-year volumes would suggest April's figures were dominated by the price shock from the Middle East supply disruption. Continuation of the decline at current crude levels would validate the Goldman Sachs estimate of a 20% consumption drop as a structural floor rather than a cyclical trough. The China Charging Alliance's monthly EV charging data, due in coming weeks, will be the earliest available read.4