Hormuz Traffic Down 94% as Brent Holds Above $100 and Mine-Clearing Timeline Slips

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to roughly 5% of pre-war levels, with just 191 vessels crossing in April compared to about 3,000 per month before the US and Israel struck Iran on February 28, according to maritime analytics firm Kpler cited by CNN. The strait normally carries an estimated 15 million barrels per day — around one-fifth of global seaborne oil trade. Iran closed the passage after the February strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose son Mojtaba subsequently assumed leadership in Tehran. Tehran initially allowed vessels from India, Pakistan, Turkey and China to transit after paying tolls, then shut the lane to all foreign-flagged ships in response to US naval operations. Brent crude was trading at $106.68 a barrel on May 14, with US crude at $102.09, according to Crux Investor. Reuters put Brent near $107.50 the previous day. The World Bank's April 28 forecast projected a full-year 2026 average of $86, assuming acute disruptions end in May and shipping gradually normalizes by late 2026 — an assumption that looks increasingly strained. Iran published a map in early May showing mined areas and a designated alternative route running closer to its coastline past Larak Island, requiring Iranian naval inspection of transiting vessels. The IMO's official shipping lane has been largely abandoned, CNN reported, with most permitted traffic now using the Iranian coastal corridor. More than 800 vessels remained anchored or holding in the Persian Gulf as of early May. Kpler's Dimitris Ampatzidis told CNN that not all should be characterized as stranded, noting Iranian and Gulf-based operators continued regional runs. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Beijing in mid-May. Trump said Xi agreed Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons and that Hormuz must remain open to international navigation, and claimed Xi gave assurances China would not supply military equipment to Tehran. Whether those assurances hold is unclear. The New York Times documented continued Iranian oil shipments reaching China despite US interdiction efforts. US officials said the naval blockade, which began April 13, intercepted more than 70 vessels in its first three weeks. The Times tracked three specific tankers appearing to transit toward China, including the Huge — an Iranian vessel that loaded at Kharg Island in early April and was spotted off Indonesia in early May with its AIS transponder off. OPEC cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.17 million barrels per day from 1.38 million bpd, according to IDNFinancials. OPEC+ production stood at 33.19 million bpd in April, down 1.74 million bpd from March. The key variables for the second half are mine-clearing and insurance, not diplomacy. US officials have said clearing the mined areas could take six months. War-risk premiums have reportedly reached 5% of hull value against 0.25% before the conflict — meaning commercial operators may stay out even if physical passage reopens. The World Bank's normalization timeline was already optimistic when published; Washington and Tehran remain deadlocked on the nuclear file with no ceasefire framework in sight.