Mitsui Chases LNG Deals as China Cuts Imports and Russia Locks In Pipeline Gas
IGU data showing China's 8.9 million tonne LNG import decline in 2025 complicates Mitsui's data center supply strategy as Russia's Power of Siberia 2 advances.
China's LNG imports fell 8.9 million tonnes in 2025 to 69.77 million tonnes, the International Gas Union reported in its annual world LNG report released on July 19 (2026-07-19), the largest single-country decline globally, driven by mild seasonal demand, rising domestic production, and expanded Russian pipeline flows.6
The data lands as Mitsui & Co. is actively hunting for equity stakes or offtake agreements in LNG projects across the Middle East, the United States and Australia, its chief executive said in late May (2026-05-31), positioning the push as a response to power demand from artificial intelligence data centers. Declining import volumes in the world's largest LNG buyer complicate the long-term pricing assumptions behind those deals.5,4
Asia Pacific remained the largest LNG-importing region in 2025, total imports rising 3.6 million tonnes to 168.7 million tonnes, the IGU said. But within that aggregate, Asian volumes fell 9.2 million tonnes to 108.7 million tonnes. India dropped 1.5 million tonnes to 24.60 million tonnes, finishing the year at roughly 5.63 percent of global import market share.6
China's withdrawal from LNG has structural dimensions beyond one mild winter. Power of Siberia 1 continued its ramp toward a targeted 38 billion cubic meter annual flow. In 2024, China imported the equivalent of 107 billion cubic meters of LNG alongside 71 billion cubic meters of pipeline gas, according to CSIS data, leaving limited appetite for spot or short-term cargoes at premium prices.2,6
The pipeline story grew considerably bigger on May 19 (2026-05-19), when Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation signed a legally binding memorandum to build Power of Siberia 2. The proposed line runs 2,600 kilometers from Russia's Yamal Peninsula to northern China via eastern Mongolia, with capacity for up to 50 billion cubic meters annually. The two parties also agreed to expand capacity on Power of Siberia 1 and a planned Eastern Route.1,3
If Power of Siberia 2 reaches full utilization after 2030, China's Russian pipeline gas intake could exceed 100 billion cubic meters per year, accounting for more than one-fifth of its projected demand at that point, CSIS analysis shows. Every additional bcm of discounted pipeline gas reduces Beijing's incentive to commit to the long-term LNG offtake contracts that trading houses like Mitsui need as financing anchors for upstream investments.2
Price has been the perennial sticking point. Power of Siberia 1 took the better part of a decade to close, the $400 billion contract signed in May 2014 immediately after Russia's annexation of Crimea narrowed Moscow's options and strengthened Beijing's negotiating hand. No pricing terms for Power of Siberia 2 have been disclosed publicly, and Beijing's capacity to extract discounted terms has not diminished in the intervening years.2
Mitsui is building its position regardless. The company already holds a contract with Venture Global for 1 million tonnes of LNG annually and a stake in Abu Dhabi's Ruwais LNG project, scheduled to begin production in 2028. The data center framing from its CEO ties the investment case to long-duration, power-linked contracts rather than spot commodity arbitrage.4,5
JKM spot, the Asian LNG benchmark, traded at $22.00 per MMBtu at Friday's close (2026-07-25), firm relative to the soft 2025 annual import figures the IGU released the previous week. Near-term supply constraints appear to be driving that price rather than a demand revival, and a bullish supply-side signal in JKM sits against the bearish weight of IGU's annual volumes. India, for its part, added 7.1 million tonnes per annum of regasification capacity in 2025 through the Chhara LNG terminal and the Dabhol breakwater expansion, pushing it to fourth-largest globally with 52.5 million tonnes per annum across eight terminals. Whether that new capacity translates to actual import growth, or sits underutilized as cheap Russian pipeline gas continues anchoring Chinese demand away from the spot market, is what the 2026 annual volumes will eventually settle.6