Uranium Equities Fall Behind an 18-Year Price Record as Sprott Calls the Selloff Overdone
Long-term uranium contracts hit an 18-year high in June while mining equities fell nearly 4%, a divergence Sprott says investors have mispriced.
The Global X Uranium ETF ended Friday (2026-07-25) at $39.89, down 1.6% on the session, capping a first half in which uranium mining equities dropped 3.9% while the long-term uranium contract price climbed to $94 a pound, or C$132.34, at the end of June 2026, its highest in 18 years, according to Sprott Asset Management. Uranium spot prices gained 4.3% over the same period.6
Sprott published its view on July 20 (2026-07-20) that the equity selloff had created a buying opportunity, arguing that investors have failed to recognize what a rising long-term contract price implies about supply tightness. "A rising long-term price shows that the market remains tight, even if equity markets don't reflect it," wrote Jacob White, Sprott's ETF product manager.6
The underperformance has been concentrated and severe. Junior uranium miners lost 7.4% in the first half of 2026, worse than the 3.9% drop for the broader uranium equity index. June alone saw the two major uranium equity indexes slide 14.4% and 17.5% respectively. Sprott's Physical Uranium Trust, which holds 81.4 million pounds of uranium oxide and carries a net asset value of roughly $7.1 billion, tracks the physical market more directly and has held its value relative to the mining equities.6
The U.S. Department of Energy in June 2026 announced $17.5 billion in conditional loans to fund long-lead items for as many as 10 new reactors. Thirty-eight countries have pledged to triple nuclear capacity by 2050. Meta has signed agreements for up to 6.6 gigawatts of nuclear power. Microsoft's 20-year, 835 MW power purchase agreement with Constellation Energy, signed in September 2024 to restart Three Mile Island Unit 1 with a 2027 startup target, was confirmed as of late May 2026 (2026-05-28).6,4,1
Three ETFs have accumulated most of the investor positioning across the nuclear supply chain. The Range Nuclear Renaissance Index ETF, NUKZ, had posted a 42% one-year return and a 14% year-to-date gain by early June 2026 (2026-06-01), weighted toward reactor operators and small modular reactor developers. The Global X Uranium ETF, URA, had returned 62% over 12 months as of that same period amid upstream fuel constraints. VanEck's Uranium and Nuclear ETF, NLR, blends regulated utilities with miners and uranium services companies for broader exposure across the chain.2,5
The demand case rests on load growth that U.S. grids have not had to absorb in a generation. Data center electricity consumption is projected to climb from roughly 5% of total U.S. power generation to approximately 15% over five years, on a grid that has barely expanded since 2000. The Department of Energy projects data centers could account for up to 12% of U.S. electrical demand by 2028, with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory estimating a range of 6.7% to 12% of total annual consumption.1,2
Nuclear competes on continuous output. A 1 GW reactor occupies a fraction of the land of an equivalent solar build and runs at capacity factors north of 90%, making it the natural answer for hyperscalers requiring firm, around-the-clock power. The EIA has flagged a 5% increase in residential electricity prices expected in 2026, a figure regulators and utilities are citing to justify dispatchable additions over intermittent sources.1,2
Westinghouse's first-quarter 2026 results illustrate how service-side exposure can insulate a nuclear name from mining equity volatility. Revenue of $606.30 million missed consensus by 26% and EPS of $0.33 fell just short of the $0.34 estimate. But adjusted net earnings nearly tripled to $145.59 million and adjusted EBITDA rose 33% to $122 million, suggesting backlog conversion is running ahead of what the headline revenue line shows.3
Sprott's entry case is coherent on the numbers but ran into a June 2026 in which equities fell hard even as policy commitments accumulated. The DOE's $17.5 billion in conditional loans has yet to convert into committed construction financing. Uranium offtake contracts have not followed hyperscaler power announcements at the pace the long-term contract price would imply. Those gaps — not the long-term contract price, which Sprott itself acknowledges is already reflecting supply tightness — are what equity markets appear to be pricing as the second half begins.6,2