Saudi Arabia Rebuilds Crude Exports Near Pre-War Levels as Gulf Spare Capacity Shrinks
Wood Mackenzie vessel tracking shows Saudi Yanbu throughput peaked at 4.07 million b/d in March and fell 41% by June, with global spare capacity now lower than pre-conflict.
Saudi crude exports through the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea peaked at 4.07 million barrels per day in March, according to Wood Mackenzie vessel tracking and cargo data published Thursday (2026-07-24), before falling 41% to 2.39 million barrels per day by June as the kingdom switched back to Persian Gulf loadings under an interim US-Iran peace deal.7
The data capture the full arc of Saudi Arabia's export rerouting. In March, 86.7% of all Saudi liftings originated from Yanbu, covering 121.9 million barrels across 77 cargoes. Aramco had ramped the East-West Petroline to 7 million barrels per day in roughly eight days to keep approximately 60% of the kingdom's pre-war exports flowing through the Red Sea during the Hormuz blockade.7,1
Recovery since the reopening has been swift. Saudi Arabia shipped 6.3 million barrels per day in the six days through Wednesday (2026-07-01), tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show, putting flows at roughly the 2025 annual average and near 90% of February's pre-war rate. About 10 million barrels of Saudi crude had cleared the Strait of Hormuz in preceding days, with supertankers reloading at Ras Tanura, Rystad Energy noted.6,5
But the rebound does not restore what the conflict consumed. Wood Mackenzie analyst Shah said on Thursday (2026-07-24) that "much of the world's spare production capacity has already been used, while strategic and commercial oil inventories are lower than when [the conflict began]." If disruptions resume, Shah added, oil prices are more likely to rise than they were at the outset of the conflict.7
The scale of the initial production loss helps explain why. The EIA's May Short-Term Energy Outlook, published May 17 (2026-05-17), assessed that Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain collectively shut in 10.5 million barrels per day of production after disruptions escalated sharply beyond April levels — a figure no bypass route could fully offset.2
The Yanbu peak never captured the full picture of commercial disruption. Saudi cargoes scheduled for May delivery were assessed at roughly 3.9 million barrels per day near historic lows, OilPrice.com reported on May 22 (2026-05-22), as Chinese, Indian and other major Asian buyers turned away from Saudi crude. Logistics were only part of the problem; buyer reticence compounded the shortfall.3
The UAE ran a parallel bypass using the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, which connects Habshan to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman coast and can carry up to 1.8 million barrels per day. The UAE formally exited OPEC on May 1 (2026-05-01), freeing Abu Dhabi to deploy that capacity more independently. ADNOC has brought its 5 million barrels per day production capacity target forward by three years, now aiming to hit that figure next year, and Abu Dhabi announced in mid-May (2026-05-15) plans to double Fujairah's export capacity by 2027.4,1
ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $96.88 a barrel on Friday (2026-07-24), up 0.67% on the session, as the market weighed recovering Gulf supply volumes against a depleted forward buffer. [LIVE PRICES]
With the peace deal interim and Hormuz passage not guaranteed to remain open, Saudi Arabia and the UAE enter any future disruption having already drawn down their shock-absorption capacity. The East-West Petroline proved it could sustain 7 million barrels per day under pressure — but getting back to that rate took Aramco eight days at peak effort. The next test, should one come, would find global spare capacity further compressed, strategic reserves lighter, and Asian buyers who have spent months sourcing alternatives and building new supply relationships.7,1