Norway Gas Output Jumps 13 Percent Year-on-Year With Strike Risk Hanging Over July
June's sharp production rebound confirms Norway's hold on EU pipeline supply, while a labour stoppage threatens to reverse the gains in July.
Norway produced 332.8 million cubic meters per day of natural gas in June, up 13.4 percent from June 2025 and 9.3 percent from May, according to preliminary government figures published Tuesday (2026-07-21). Monthly gas sales reached 10.0 billion standard cubic meters, up from 9.4 billion Sm³ in May, SODIR data showed. The increase mirrored a broad offshore rebound as fields returned from scheduled seasonal maintenance.4,5
The data cement Norway's position at the top of European supply. The European Commission's latest gas market report confirmed Norway as the EU's single largest pipeline gas source in 2025, delivering 86 Bcm or 54.4 percent of the bloc's pipeline imports — a share built on the near-elimination of Russian flows since 2021. At that concentration, any sustained Norwegian outage passes directly into European gas prices with limited alternative pipeline cover.4,2
Russia's pipeline gas share of EU imports collapsed from roughly 40 percent in 2021 to around 6 percent in 2025. Including LNG, Russia still accounted for only 12 percent of total EU gas imports last year, EU Council data show. Norway filled most of what was left behind on the pipeline side.2
LNG completed the rebalancing. Liquefied natural gas accounted for 131 Bcm or 45 percent of EU gas imports in 2025, up nine percentage points from the prior year, an official report released Monday (2026-07-07) showed. With Russia marginalised, Norway and seaborne LNG now underpin the supply base that Moscow once dominated.3,2
June's rebound was not limited to gas. Norway's crude oil production averaged 1.827 million barrels per day in the month, above SODIR's official forecast, with total liquids output reaching 2.022 million barrels per day once natural gas liquids and condensate are included, up from 1.909 million barrels per day in May, according to preliminary figures released Tuesday (2026-07-21).5
But the output picture carries an immediate caveat. Offshore Norge warned on July 9 (2026-07-09) that production losses from an ongoing SAFE union strike were expected to reach around 120,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by the end of week 30. That estimate covers both oil and gas. If the stoppage persists into late July, June's strong figures may prove a high-water mark rather than the start of a sustained run. ICE Endex TTF front-month held at €61.90 per megawatt-hour on Friday (2026-07-24), flat on the session.4
European underground gas storage sat at 73.7 percent of capacity as of June 16 (2026-06-16), up from 71.5 percent the prior week, according to AGSI+ data. That buffer softens the immediate pressure from any short Norwegian disruption. Still, with Norway supplying more than half the bloc's pipeline gas, a prolonged stoppage would test storage's ability to compensate through the remainder of summer.1
Earlier this summer, the Nyhamna gas processing plant in Norway showed how quickly Norwegian supply events translate into global price moves. Extended maintenance there pushed JKM Asian LNG spot prices from the mid-USD 9s to the mid-USD 13s per MMBtu in a single week during June, before they settled in the low-USD 12s, European Gas Hub reported. Norwegian infrastructure disruptions now move Asian LNG benchmarks alongside European hubs.1
How long the SAFE walkout runs is the variable European gas buyers are tracking as July closes out. Offshore Norge's July 9 (2026-07-09) estimate was built on losses accumulating to week 30's end; if the dispute drags further, the July SODIR production release will show whether June's numbers were the recovery or its peak.4