Equinor CEO Says Europe Will Miss 80% Gas Storage Target as Asia Locks Up LNG
European storage at 54% full versus 64% a year ago, with Qatari capacity offline and Asian buyers absorbing the available spot market.
European gas storage dropped below 54% full as of Wednesday (2026-07-23), ten percentage points behind the same date last year, and Equinor CEO Anders Opedal told Montel on Wednesday (2026-07-22) that hitting the 80% target before winter is unlikely. "It will probably be difficult to get above 80% storage levels, and that means less robustness heading into winter," Opedal said. ICE Endex TTF front-month held at €61.90/MWh on Friday (2026-07-24).5,6
The gap matters because 26 percentage points of storage fill in a shrinking injection window is not a rounding error — it is a supply adequacy problem. Asia is absorbing the LNG that would otherwise close it. The continent accounts for nearly 90% of LNG shipments from key Middle East producers Qatar and the UAE, according to data cited by oilprice.com, while Europe draws only 7-11% of its LNG from the same region. That imbalance existed before the US-Iran conflict. It has grown harder to correct since.6
Both the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb are effectively closed to normal traffic. Before the war, around 20% of the world's oil and gas transited through Hormuz; Bab el-Mandeb handled roughly 7% of global oil output. The simultaneous shutdown of both passages has compressed the supply available to any importing region.6
Damage to Qatari infrastructure has done further work. Iranian missile and drone strikes during spring 2026 hit Ras Laffan LNG Trains 4 and 6, along with Pearl GTL Train 2. QatarEnergy estimates repairs will sideline approximately 12.8 million tonnes per year of LNG capacity. ICIS analysts said the conflict is delaying the expected recovery of Qatari supply in time to help this winter's European balance.6
India shows how sharply Asian demand is pulling on the available pool. Before the war, India sourced close to 60% of its LNG imports from the Middle East. With those flows disrupted, South Asian buyers have been especially aggressive on spot markets. Senior S&P Global price reporter Suyash Pande said the impact from the Iran conflict was particularly pronounced in South Asia, helping drive derivatives trading volumes up 251% year-on-year as buyers scrambled for alternatives.6
Europe competes in that same spot market, and it starts from a weak structural position. With its share of Middle East LNG thin before the conflict, the continent functions as a residual buyer. Opedal's comments to Montel made clear the arithmetic is not working in Europe's favour during the injection season.5
A prolonged Hormuz closure would shift conditions from tight to acute. A commodities investment manager told Montel's German Energy Day on Thursday (2026-05-21) that Europe's current price shock tips into an outright supply crisis if the strait stays shut for another year. ICE Brent crude front-month was trading at $97.32 per barrel on Friday (2026-07-24), with the OPEC basket at $102.76 per barrel on the same date.1,6
Coal offers limited relief. Analysts told Montel in May 2026 that LNG supply disruption was unlikely to produce any marked shift in Europe's coal phase-out trajectory, given how far that process had already advanced. Newcastle coal physical prices stood at $120.40 per tonne on Friday (2026-07-24). Without a meaningful coal backstop, gas-fired generation remains exposed to whatever the spot LNG market delivers.2,6
European industrial buyers are not reducing their own vulnerability. Despite the region's growing dependence on imported LNG, market participants told Montel on Wednesday (2026-06-03) that industrial consumers remain reluctant to sign long-term supply contracts, preferring spot exposure even as Asian competition intensifies. That reluctance narrows the options available to utilities heading into what could be a constrained heating season.3
US LNG investment is accelerating in response to the conflict, with S&P Global noting on Tuesday (2026-07-15) that American export projects have attracted increased capital. But new capacity takes years to build. Near-term European supply depends on how much Atlantic basin LNG can be redirected away from Asia — and at what cost. With JKM Asian LNG spot at $21.82/MMBtu and ICE Endex TTF front-month at €61.90/MWh on Friday (2026-07-24), the arbitrage currently favours Asian destinations. European buyers will need either prices to move or Asian demand to ease before that calculus shifts.4,6