US Morning Demand Note, Friday, July 25, 2026
The dominant signal this morning is a sprawling heat anomaly baked into virtually every major demand region, with the 15-day gas-weighted national CDD count surging from 209 to 234, 115 units above normal, and the run-to-run evolution pointing toward meaningful upward revision rather than stabilization.
The synoptic read is one of persistent ridging over the central and eastern US, driving above-normal heat loading across a wide geographic footprint. The key model question right now is whether the ridge axis holds its current position or sheds eastward into the coming weeks. If the ridge remains anchored over the central plains through early August, Midwest and South/West burn rates stay elevated well into the medium range. If the ridge shifts east, the Northeast picks up the heaviest relative anomaly while ERCOT and the southern Plains see some moderation from their current extreme pace. What makes this morning's data notable is the magnitude of that widest run-to-run gap: 4.451 CDDs on August 2, which signals the models have not yet converged on the intensity of the heat event centered near that date. Three consecutive runs trending warmer would signal a locked pattern; for now, treat that day as the fulcrum of remaining uncertainty.
The Midwest is the standout zone in this cycle. A 15-day CDD count of 206 against a normal of 74, a 132-unit anomaly and a delta gain of 64 from last run, puts Chicago Citygate and MISO demand well into the bullish tier. That kind of deviation, more than 11 sigma above the zone mean, reflects genuine heat dome conditions for the region rather than a statistical artifact. This is the zone most sensitive to the ridge-axis question: a westward or steady ridge keeps Midwest burn structurally elevated; a fast eastern progression would cap the upside here first.
ERCOT presents the most complex read. The 15-day CDD count at 379 remains extraordinarily elevated, 208 units above normal, but the delta is negative at minus 37, meaning the run-to-run revision trimmed ERCOT's heat loading even as the national number rose. This is consistent with a ridge that may be lifting slightly off the deep South and concentrating its energy further north and east. ERCOT demand is still deeply supportive in absolute terms, but the directional trend within the zone deserves watching.
The South/West and Northeast are both additive to the picture. South/West's 199-unit anomaly across Transco Z4 and SoCal confirms broad continental heat, not a regional quirk. The Northeast's 78-unit anomaly and delta gain of 17 at Algonquin and TETCO M3 suggest the heat is expanding its footprint rather than retreating, a supportive posture for regional power and gas across the Atlantic seaboard.
The picture shifts if the August 2 model gap resolves cooler on the next two runs, particularly for the Midwest where the run-to-run variance has the most room to retrace. Watch also for any trough intrusion from Canada, the one mechanism capable of cutting the ridge axis and breaking the heat pattern ahead of guidance. Until either of those signals materializes, the national CDD trajectory and the multi-region anomaly depth keep the demand read firmly supportive across HH and regional power instruments.