Saudi Tanker Rerouted as Oil Markets Face Two-Chokepoint Squeeze
Hormuz crossings at 90 percent below normal and Houthi blockade threats at Bab el-Mandeb are squeezing oil flows from both ends of the Arabian Peninsula.
The Amazon departed Yanbu carrying more than one million barrels of Saudi crude, bound for India, and switched its destination to the Suez Canal instead, Rigzone reported on Wednesday (2026-07-22) — one measurable sign of the routing pressure Houthi attacks are placing on tankers operating in the Red Sea.3
That diversion illustrates how exposed Saudi Arabia's export infrastructure has become. Around 70 percent of Saudi energy exports were routed through Yanbu before the latest escalation, with shipments averaging above four million barrels per day since June and surging to 4.7 million barrels per day after a truce lapsed on July 13 — up from just 973,000 barrels per day during the same period in 2025.2 The port absorbed the overspill from Hormuz disruptions. Now it faces disruption of its own.
Hormuz crossings have simultaneously fallen back toward the April and May lows. HSBC Senior Global Oil and Gas Analyst Kim Fustier, in a research note sent to Rigzone on Wednesday (2026-07-22), said "several days at single-digit vessel transits" had been recorded at the strait, down 90 percent from normal, implying liquids flows of less than two million barrels per day.6 Available bypass pipeline capacity, including projects under construction and study, reaches roughly 11 million barrels per day — still well short of the 19 to 20 million barrels per day that normally transit Hormuz, Fustier noted.6
Standard Chartered's head of energy research, Emily Ashford, described the configuration in a note also sent to Rigzone on Wednesday (2026-07-22) as a "two choke-point problem."6 ICE Brent crude front-month was at $101.04 per barrel as of Thursday's close (2026-07-23). Fustier noted that the mid-June calm following the US-Iran memorandum of understanding had "given way to a renewed test of the oil market's resilience," with Brent back above $90 per barrel even before the Bab el-Mandeb escalation widened the risk picture.6
The Bab el-Mandeb dimension is newer and less fully priced. The strait carries roughly 7 percent of global energy trade, and nearly 8 percent of the world's seaborne LNG passes through its confined waters on the way to the Suez Canal.2,1 Houthi rebels said they would seek to impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, adding a front to a conflict that had previously concentrated pressure on Hormuz. An analyst at MarineTraffic told NBC News on Wednesday (2026-07-22) that the "Bab el-Mandeb risk picture is deteriorating."4
Iran's instructions had already signalled the intent. OilPrice.com reported that Tehran had instructed the Houthis to stand ready to close Bab el-Mandeb if the United States followed through on threats to strike Iranian power infrastructure, with stockpiles of drones and advanced missiles positioned across Yemen's highlands overlooking Hodeidah and the Gulf of Aden.2
Two Chinese-owned tankers loaded with Saudi crude were still transiting the Red Sea toward Bab el-Mandeb on Thursday (2026-07-23), ship-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed, despite overnight Houthi attacks on Saudi vessels.5 Their continued passage reflects the divided calculus running through the tanker market — some operators pressing on, others diverting. "It's a cacophony of bad news at the moment," said Sasha Foss, an analyst at CSC Commodities, a division of Marex Group.3
LNG flows carry separate exposure. JKM front-month Asian LNG was at $21.82 per MMBtu as of Thursday's close (2026-07-23). Any sustained Houthi interdiction at Bab el-Mandeb would extend voyage lengths for cargoes moving through the Suez Canal, compressing spot availability for both European and Asian buyers who depend on the corridor.1
Saudi Arabia's ability to sustain 4.7 million barrels per day through Yanbu under active Houthi interdiction — rather than the current threatened posture — is the practical stress test for the premium built into current crude prices. A forced shift back to the Cape of Good Hope route would absorb tanker capacity globally in ways not captured by price models built on transit assumptions. At single-digit Hormuz vessel transits, the bypass arithmetic is already failing the market. A second disrupted strait would make it fail faster.6,2