Trader Morning Call — Friday July 24, 2026

Trader Morning Call — Friday July 24, 2026 Weather - ECMWF ensemble day10 shows strong warm bias across continental Europe: Frankfurt 84% probability >1sd warm, Paris 76%, Amsterdam 72%. London milder at 53%. - Week2 temps warming further, Paris 10d avg 22.9°C, Frankfurt 19.3°C. Cooling demand moderate but below stress levels. - US heatwave intensifying, Dallas 14-day CDD 250.9, Houston 218.6, Phoenix 300.3. ERCOT preparing for record demand. Texas power at risk. - Wind forecasts subdued, London 7-day avg 16.5 km/h, Amsterdam 12.0 km/h, Frankfurt 9.8 km/h. Below seasonal norms, limiting renewables contribution. - Tropical storm Bertha approaching Gulf, Chevron shutting production. FEMA may lack permanent leader through peak hurricane season (E&E). - Japan heatwave extreme, Nagoya CDD 230.5, Tokyo 185.0, Osaka 213.4 over 14 days. Power demand surge likely. Euro Gas Fundamentals - EU gas storage 54.4% full (615.0 TWh), 7-day change +1.4pp from 53.0%. Lowest for this point in 15 years per Equinor CEO. - Equinor warns Europe may miss 80% storage target before winter. Competition with Asia for LNG cargoes intensifying amid Iran conflict. - Italy storage 73.1% full (148.7 TWh), best in Europe. Netherlands at 33.5%, Belgium at 30.2%. Southern Europe better positioned. - Naturgy warns of "gas shortages and price spikes" this winter. February identified as highest risk month. - Spain TSO Enagas says geopolitical volatility "no longer transitory but structural", structural risk premium now embedded. - US feedgas rates high, Permian gas glut persists with negative Waha pricing. New pipelines expected to ease takeaway constraints. Technicals - TTF front-month (€61.90/MWh close): 20d-MA €50.49, 50d-MA €48.12, 200d-MA €39.97. Price +54.8% vs 200d-MA, uptrend intact. 52-week high at €62.54, 98th percentile. Resistance at €62.50, support at 20d-MA €50.49. - Brent front-month ($100.59/bbl): 20d-MA $80.52, 50d-MA $87.58, 200d-MA $80.00. Price +26% vs 200d-MA. 20d range $71.57-$100.76. $100 psychological level tested and held. - WTI front-month ($91.78/bbl): 20d-MA $75.86, 50d-MA $83.50, 200d-MA $75.21. +22.5% vs 200d-MA. 52-week high $112.95 (30th percentile). - Henry Hub front-month ($2.92/MMBtu): 20d-MA $3.05, 50d-MA $3.10, 200d-MA $3.45. -15.6% vs 200d-MA, downtrend. 52-week low $2.52, 8th percentile. - EUA Dec (€83.13/tCO2): No MA data available. Closed -3.20% on session. Support at €80 psychological level. Gas Market - TTF front-month settled at €61.90/MWh (-1.16%), pulling back from €62.54 52-week high. Volumes moderate. - TTF Cal+1 at €44.46/MWh (+0.62%), deferred holding up better than prompt. Backwardation steepening. - TTF Q+1 at €61.19/MWh (-0.85%), front-quarter tracking prompt weakness. - NBP front-month at €63.61/MWh (-1.13%), UK premium to TTF at €1.71. NBP Cal+1 at €47.21/MWh (+0.58%). - THE M+1 (€62.28/MWh, -1.37%), German hub trading in line with TTF. - Gas-fired power generation surging, Iberdrola reports +33% YoY increase in EU ETS-covered gas output H1 2026. Coal-to-gas switching accelerating. - Data center demand driving gas turbine orders, GE Vernova orders doubled in Q2. LNG Markets - JKM front-month at $21.82/MMBtu, flat on session. 20d-MA $17.38, 52-week high $22.35 (97th percentile). Asia premium to TTF narrowing. - QatarEnergy preparing to extend LNG force majeure through mid-October, supply disruption from Hormuz continuing. - Buyers planning to press Qatar, UAE for cheaper, more flexible deals, war has diminished exporters' negotiating power per Reuters. - China LNG import CIF price index at 176.59 points (week to July 19), elevated but stable. - LNG supply crisis pushing buyers toward coal and oil, Asia accounts for ~90% of Middle East LNG shipments. - EU concedes to Greek LNG demand in Russia sanctions row, Dynagas exempted from latest sanctions package. UK Power & Continental Power - GB day-ahead at £139.32/MWh, elevated on gas linkage. - UK Power Cal+1 at £96.35/MWh (+0.45%), modest recovery. - UK Power Q+1 at £129.41/MWh (-0.26%), tracking gas lower. - German front-month power at €132.45/MWh (-0.90%), gas-led decline. German day-ahead at €110.79/MWh. - French front-month at €101.51/MWh (-4.41%), steep drop, nuclear availability improving. - Italian day-ahead at €171.11/MWh, highest in continental Europe. Italian front-month at €169.52/MWh (-1.16%). - Nordic base M+1 at €66.73/MWh (-1.80%), hydro-rich region less exposed to gas. - Spanish day-ahead at €145.59/MWh, elevated but ES base M+1 at €119.11/MWh (-6.38%) sharply lower. - New UK energy minister Miatta Fahnbulleh unlikely to materially affect wholesale prices per analysts (Montel). Coal Market - VanEck Coal ETF (Newcastle proxy) at $23.93 (+0.50%), modest gains. - Newcastle physical coal at $120.90/t, elevated on LNG-to-coal switching demand. - No API2 price data available, market qualitatively firm on gas substitution. - LNG supply crisis pushing buyers toward coal, Asian demand for thermal coal rising as gas alternative. - China oil output hit record 216 million tonnes in 2025, coal-to-gas switching constrained by domestic production limits. Carbon Market (EUA) - EUA Dec settled at €83.13/tCO2 (-3.20%), sharp session decline after recent rally. - No technical MA data available for EUA. €80 support level critical, break would target €78 per prior analysis. - Euro Markets report rally pricing in structural tightness from EC reform proposals. - Lead MEP Peter Liese keeps door open to further tweaks on EU carbon cap trajectory, LRF could still be adjusted. - EU ETS carbon removal procurement needs strict quality rules and technology safeguards per German commission report. - EU-UK ETS linkage talks to resume after summer, summit targeted by year-end. - Iberdrola reports surge in EU ETS-covered gas-fired power production (+33% H1 2026 vs H1 2025), higher compliance demand. - UKA at £62.14/tCO2, no volume data. Spread to EUA ~€10. - Biochar must be part of solution for EU ETS carbon removals per lead MEP. Oil Market - ICE Brent crude front-month at $100.59/bbl (-1.17%), pulled back from intraday highs near $96 (per article data). $100 psychological level tested. - NYMEX WTI crude front-month at $91.78/bbl (-1.02%), narrowing Brent-WTI spread to $8.81. - Urals crude at $73.12/bbl, deep discount to Brent reflecting sanctions risk. - Dubai crude at $76.53/bbl, Middle East benchmark under pressure from Hormuz disruption. - OPEC basket at $94.53/bbl, tracking Brent. - EIA data (week July 17): US crude inventories +2.0m bbl to 411.7m (6% below 5yr avg). Gasoline +0.8m, distillate +1.4m. Total petroleum +11.6m bbl. - US refinery utilization 96.2%, near capacity. Midwest and Rockies even tighter. - Houthis struck two Saudi tankers in Red Sea, oil prices jumped ~4% intraday. Two China-owned tankers continuing through Bab el-Mandeb. - Brent at $100 adds inflation pressure on top of AI buildout and tariffs, Bloomberg Surveillance noting Fed complication. - CFTC (July 14): Managed money net short Brent -16,324 lots (WoW -7,326). Net long WTI +86,383 (WoW +11,704). Net long RBOB +68,951. - Brazil oil boom accelerating as Asian buyers flee Middle East, no need to transit contested waters. - Pakistan scrambling for oil alternatives, inquiring about US, Nigeria, Singapore, Central Asian supply. Systematic & Signals - CFTC Managed Money (July 14): Net short Brent -16,324 lots, shorts adding. Net long WTI +86,383, longs building. Net long ULSD +10,919 (+6,116 WoW). - Henry Hub: Managed money net short -105,501 lots (WoW -45,124), extreme bearish positioning at 8th percentile of 52-week range. - RBOB: Managed money net long +68,951 (WoW -2,592), slight trimming but still heavily long. - Brent Last Day (NYMEX): Managed money net long +12,938, positioning for backwardation. - VIX at 19.30 (+15.57%), risk aversion spiking. DXY at 101.45 (+0.47%), dollar strength weighing on commodities. - Gold at $4,047.21/oz, flat. Risk-off bid supporting but dollar strength capping. - ECB rate decision today, markets pricing potential hawkish tilt if oil-driven inflation persists. Geopolitics - Houthis attack Saudi tankers in Red Sea, two vessels struck. Threatening to widen Iran war into Bab el-Mandeb blockade. - Trump threatens "major military punishment" if Houthis continue attacks. 12th consecutive night of US strikes on Iran. - Four oil tankers diverted after Houthi warnings. China-owned tankers continuing through chokepoint. - Strait of Hormuz remains effectively disrupted, QatarEnergy extending LNG force majeure through October. - Iran war re-escalation collapsing tentative ceasefire. Asian refiners facing delayed crude deliveries. - Kazakhstan oil exports choked by Ukraine's drone war, attacks on Russian export infrastructure affecting CPC pipeline. - Greece exposes limits of EU Russia energy sanctions, Dynagas exemption secured. Sanctions package includes LNG ban on third countries. - Polymarket: China-Philippines military clash before 2027 at 100% (vol $747k), sharp +39.5pp move. Iran regime fall at 10%. - Iraq estimates $200 billion in new agreements with US energy companies, deepening US-Middle East energy ties. - Equinor profit +93% Q2 vs prior year. Repsol +207%. TotalEnergies +68%. Energy sector earnings boom continues.