US LNG Export Surge Underpins $55.9 Billion Equipment Market Forecast Through 2035
Asian buyers are driving the fastest growth in liquefaction plant spending as the US cements its position as the world's top exporter.
The global LNG liquefaction equipment market is projected to grow from $25.4 billion in 2025 to $55.9 billion by 2035, a compound annual rate of 8.2%, according to an analysis published Friday (2026-05-29) by Future Market Insights.2 The equipment order book offers a forward look at how much liquefaction capacity buyers are betting on — and the numbers point to expectations of a prolonged shift in gas trade flows, not just a short-term post-Ukraine spike.
Plant manufacturers will capture 58.4% of market revenue in 2025, the report found, making them the dominant equipment category.1 Mid-scale LNG plants are drawing particular interest for their lower capital requirements and faster execution times, the analysis noted.2
The projected build-out mirrors what is already happening in the physical trade. Global LNG trade hit a record 437 million tonnes in 2025, up 6.3% year-on-year, according to the International Gas Union.4 The United States alone added 22.3 million tonnes of export volume, lifting its total to 110.74 million tonnes and cementing its position as the world's top exporter.4 Qatar remained second at 81.51 million tonnes, followed by Australia at 80.32 million tonnes.4
That US export surge is not a one-off. The US supplied 93% of global LNG export growth in 2025, according to an analysis published July 19 by Forbes.5 The country's growing share of marginal supply gives it outsized influence over global pricing and cargo routing. When European prices rise, cargoes can be diverted from Asia to European terminals — flexible supply that buys energy security but carries a cost premium, the Forbes piece noted.5
The equipment market projections are heavily weighted toward Asia-Pacific and North America. China is forecast to grow equipment demand at 11.1% CAGR through 2035, India at 10.3%, Germany at 9.4%, and the US at 7.8%, according to the Future Market Insights data.1 The figures imply that investment is spread across both mature and emerging LNG import hubs.
Shell’s LNG Outlook 2026, published in June, projects that global LNG demand will reach nearly 700 million tonnes per year by 2050, a 65% increase from 2025 levels.3 A 65% demand jump over 25 years implies a sustained build-out of liquefaction trains and associated infrastructure — precisely the kind of pipeline that the equipment market is being asked to fill.
But the long-term consensus masks a more complicated short-term picture. JKM spot pricing, currently at $21.82/MMBtu as of Thursday (2026-07-23) [LIVE_PRICES], carries two bearish undercurrents — one driven by demand, one by supply. That suggests that while the equipment narrative is well-supported, the spot Asian LNG market already prices in some downside risk, possibly from new supply reaching the Pacific Basin faster than regasification capacity can absorb it.
The structural story rests on a key assumption — that the US can sustain its dominance in marginal export supply and that both China and India can absorb the resulting capacity. Neither is guaranteed. US export growth faces permitting risk, infrastructure bottlenecks and a wave of new LNG projects scheduled for final investment decisions over the next 18 months. Those project decisions will determine whether the equipment market stays on its projected 8.2% path — or breaks higher.