Clean energy trade hit $479bn in 2025 as China and India curbed coal for first time
Coal-fired generation fell in both countries simultaneously for the first time in 52 years, reshaping global fuel demand expectations.
Global trade in clean energy technologies reached $479bn in 2025, up from roughly $416bn the prior year, a report published May 29 showed.3 The headline trade figure sits inside a broader investment surge: when end-use electrification is included, total energy transition spending is on track to approach $1.6trn in 2026, with electricity grids set to attract around $550bn and battery storage investment set to surpass $100bn.3
For carbon and power markets the most consequential shift comes out of Asia. Coal-fired generation fell in both China and India in 2025 for the first time in 52 years, according to analysis from Carbon Brief published May 19.1 Chinese coal power declined 1.6% (90TWh) and Indian coal power dropped 3.0% (46TWh), as non-fossil sources covered all electricity demand growth in both countries.1 China achieved this even with electricity demand rising 5% year-on-year, while adding what will likely be over 300GW of solar and 100GW of wind — both global records.1
The generation data reveals the structural shift clearly. Chinese power output from solar and wind increased by 450TWh in the first 11 months of 2025, with nuclear adding another 35TWh.1 That pace of non-fossil supply growth reduces coal burn even when overall power demand lifts, a dynamic European power traders are watching for knock-on effects on EUA and LNG demand.
Yet global emissions still hit a record high in 2025. A 13% increase in U.S. coal-fired generation — roughly 91TWh — pushed U.S. emissions up, while electricity demand there rose 3%.4,6 North America drove nearly half of global emissions growth in 2025, one analysis found.5 The data is a reminder that the clean energy boom is geographically concentrated. The power sectors of China and India drove 93% of the rise in global CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2024; their recent coal decline is a major shift, but it has not yet reversed the global total.1
For European carbon traders the data is a mixed read. Lower coal burn in Asia weakens seaborne coal demand, keeping Newcastle coal flat at $120.10/t as of July 22.1 But it also feeds into lower global thermal coal prices, which can erode the coal-to-gas switching price level in European power markets and reduce pressure on ICE EUA Dec-rolling demand from the power sector. EUA stood at €82.45/tCO2 on July 22.3
China’s emissions trend is the bigger story for global fuel balances. China emitted 12.5 billion metric tons of CO2-equivalent in 2025, equal to 30.5% of the global total, but its year-on-year increase was only 4 million metric tons — effectively flat.6 India’s emissions rose 21 million metric tons to 3.28 billion, its slowest growth in years. Over the past decade, India’s emissions grew at an annual rate of about 3.5%, so a deceleration is underway.6 Non-OECD countries accounted for 70.5% of global emissions in 2025.6
Solar is on track to become the world’s largest source of electricity by 2032, one report forecasts, supported by manufacturing overcapacity and falling costs. Battery storage is expected to reach 3.8TW by 2035.2 That timeline matters for gas traders because sustained battery deployment erodes the midday power peak, compressing gas-fired peaker margins and lowering the call on gas for balancing.
The near-term risk is that the emissions drop in China and India is seasonal and demand-driven — if summer 2026 brings a heatwave, coal generation could rebound quickly. The U.S. example of 2025 shows how fast emissions can rise when the power mix shifts.6 For traders watching the EUA curve, the question is whether the Asia coal decline is structural enough to alter global coal price expectations, and by extension the European switching floor. The data from 2025 suggests it might be — but one year does not make a trend.