US LNG on course to become America's second-largest net export industry within five years, S&P Global finds
US LNG deliveries to Europe rose 14% in the first five months of 2026 as S&P Global projects the American export wave will only deepen.
A study released by S&P Global on Tuesday (2026-07-15) concluded that US liquefied natural gas is on course to become the second-largest net export industry in the United States within five years. The same study found that a pause in post-2025 US export capacity investment would tighten global LNG markets significantly, with the squeeze concentrated in the 2028-2031 window. Together, those two findings show how much of the global gas supply balance now rests on the American build-out proceeding without interruption.7
The European import data from the first five months of 2026 show the shift in physical form. Kpler provisional vessel tracking data put total EU-27 and UK LNG imports at 51.4 million tonnes — 70 billion cubic metres — over January to May 2026, up 5% from the same period a year earlier. US deliveries drove that growth, rising 14% to 31.4 million tonnes, a gain of 3.9 million tonnes year-on-year, while Qatari supply fell close to 50%.3
The contractual picture is more entrenched than spot volumes suggest. Atlantic Council data compiled to mid-May (2026-05) show US LNG project sponsors have executed 129 binding sale-and-purchase agreements totalling 224.29 million tonnes per annum with 72 companies across 26 nations. European buyers account for 90.84 mtpa of that, or 40.5% of all contracted volume, spread across 12 nations from Iberia to Scandinavia to the Black Sea.4
The 2022 signing surge of 57.58 mtpa across 33 contracts reflected how sharply the energy crisis shifted European buyers toward long-term supply security. The July 2025 US-EU Trade Agreement gave the process political backing, with EU commitments to purchase $750 billion in US energy over three years. Within weeks, European companies had signed over $35 billion in fresh long-term contracts.4
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis has forecast that the EU could source as much as 80% of its LNG imports from the United States by 2028, up from 58% in 2025.5,6 At NYMEX Henry Hub front-month prices of $2.91/MMBtu and ICE Endex TTF front-month at €57.51/MWh as of Sunday (2026-07-19), the spread between US wellhead costs and European delivery prices remains wide enough to support further US capacity investment.
Not all European buyers are comfortable with where that trajectory leads. OilPrice.com reported in June (2026-06-12) that buyers have been reluctant to sign additional long-term US supply agreements despite the continued Russian import phase-out, with concerns in Brussels that the continent is replacing one concentrated dependence with another.5
The Clingendael Institute, a Dutch think tank, made the risk explicit in May (2026-05-18): Europe has reduced one major vulnerability by cutting Russian supply, but growing reliance on US LNG exposes the continent to a different set of shocks — US domestic energy politics, permitting timelines, and American gas price swings.1
S&P Global's own scenario analysis gives that warning some quantitative grounding. The study found that if new US capacity investment since 2025 were not realised, global LNG markets would tighten materially, with the impact concentrated in key New England and New York markets during the 2028-2031 period.7 That is a tail risk, not a base case. But it illustrates how deeply European import security has come to depend on regulatory and commercial conditions inside the United States.
The supply momentum, for now, runs in one direction. US gas production grew roughly 3% in 2025, supported by high prices and export demand, even as global gas consumption expanded just 0.5% over the same period.2
The uncommitted volume is where the next round gets decided. Canadian projects such as Ksi Lisims — which holds 5 mtpa in existing offtake agreements and is seeking a further 3 to 4 mtpa — are competing for European demand that has not yet been locked in.5 Whether European buyers accept an 80% US concentration or redirect remaining uncommitted volume toward alternative suppliers will determine how much strategic exposure Brussels is prepared to carry before the next wave of capacity reaches final investment decisions.