Bangladesh's Rooppur Nuclear Plant Faces Currency Crisis as Costs Mount
The Bangladeshi taka's collapse since the project was approved threatens to make a $12.65 billion Russian-built reactor one of the most expensive power gambles in emerging market history.
Bangladesh's $12.65 billion Rooppur nuclear power plant, built with Russian financing and technology, is confronting a problem its planners did not adequately price a decade ago: the Bangladeshi taka has lost substantial value since the project was initially greenlit, making debt servicing and import costs significantly more burdensome than original projections assumed.7
Currency deterioration is a particular hazard for large infrastructure projects financed in hard currency. For Bangladesh, which imports nearly all its fuel and much of its industrial equipment, a weaker taka means the real cost of Rooppur in domestic terms has risen materially above the headline dollar figure — before the plant has generated a single commercial kilowatt.7
The project involves two VVER-1200 reactors with a combined capacity of 2,400 megawatts, financed largely through a Russian state loan. At the time of signing, proponents argued nuclear offered Bangladesh a path out of chronic power shortages and dependence on expensive liquefied natural gas imports. JKM Asian LNG was trading at $20.98 per MMBtu as of Saturday (2026-07-19), keeping imported gas expensive for price-sensitive buyers across the region.7
Bangladesh's situation illustrates a tension running through many emerging market nuclear programmes: the economics look compelling in the abstract, less so when the local currency depreciates sharply before the asset produces revenue. The country cannot export power and must rely on domestic electricity sales denominated in taka to service dollar-denominated debt — a structural mismatch that becomes increasingly painful during periods of currency stress.6
Canada's approach to nuclear expansion offers a contrast in financing model. Ottawa's new federal strategy calls for up to 10 large reactors domestically over 15 years, alongside expanded CANDU reactor sales abroad and increased uranium exports. The pitch is partly commercial — Canada sees an opportunity to position its reactor design and fuel supply chain as an alternative to Russian technology in markets that are now reconsidering their reliance on Rosatom following sanctions pressure.4
China meanwhile has been pursuing a parallel track in Bangladesh, focused on renewable energy. During the Fourth Bangladesh-China Renewable Energy Forum held in April, both countries expressed willingness to collaborate on the clean energy sector, with Chinese authorities backing a target of 10,000 megawatts of renewable capacity. Whether that collaboration creates a competitive dynamic with the Russian nuclear programme, or simply addresses a different segment of Bangladesh's power deficit, remains an open question for the country's energy planners.3
Uranium markets are watching demand trajectories carefully. Goldman Sachs analyst Brian Lee, in an updated nuclear model, added approximately 46 gigawatts of small modular reactor deployments by 2045 to the bank's demand projections, lifting its nuclear generation forecast by around 6% and adding 62 million pounds of uranium demand — a 17% upside to the bank's prior long-term estimate. Uranium spot prices were holding in the mid-to-high $80s per pound with term pricing near $90 per pound at the time of the analysis.1,2
Lee also flagged a cumulative uranium supply deficit of 2.3 billion pounds between 2025 and 2045 as new reactors come online globally — a figure that gives some context to why uranium-linked equities have attracted renewed institutional attention even as individual project risks remain high. The URA uranium ETF was trading at $38.73 on Saturday (2026-07-19), down 0.74% on the session.1
India, adjacent to Bangladesh and facing its own energy transition pressures, signed a uranium supply agreement with Australia during Prime Minister Modi's visit to Canberra, targeting 100 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2047. New Delhi's ambitions underscore how the regional competition for fuel supply and reactor technology is intensifying across South and Southeast Asia — making the economics of each individual project more consequential for the countries that cannot afford to get them wrong.5
For Bangladesh, the immediate test is whether the taka's depreciation will be absorbed by the government through subsidy or passed through to consumers at rates that undermine the plant's political rationale. Rooppur was sold domestically as a solution to expensive power. If the currency math means it delivers expensive power from a different source, Dhaka will face pressure to renegotiate financing terms with Moscow — a conversation that is now considerably more complicated than it would have been before February 2022.7,6
The forward signal to track is whether Bangladesh approaches alternative partners — Canada with its CANDU financing ambitions, or multilateral lenders — for refinancing or currency hedging arrangements that could reduce the taka exposure on the remaining loan drawdowns.