CATL bets battery storage will overtake EVs in sales mix by 2030
CATL's push into stationary storage raises end-of-life recycling questions that government subsidies alone cannot answer.
Connected Energy's chief executive Matthew Lumsden told Energy Voice in June (2026-06-26) that there is no material benefit from repurposing a battery beyond a certain point — a blunt admission from inside the industry that undercuts one of its tidier narratives about second-life applications smoothing the end-of-life problem.4
CATL, the world's largest battery manufacturer, expects sales of battery storage systems to account for half of its total sales by 2030, up from roughly 25% at present, according to the company's chairman.3 That projection signals a deliberate pivot away from a business whose revenues have long tracked the EV market.
The commercial rationale is plain enough. China curtailed 3.1% of its total solar output last year, meaning generation was physically wasted because grid demand could not absorb it when the sun was producing.3 Stationary storage is the mechanical fix, and CATL is betting its sales mix on it. But what happens to those batteries after their service life expires is a question the company's forward guidance does not address.
Ascend Elements, a U.S. battery recycler, has found that question commercially punishing.1 Its struggles, reported by Canary Media in April (2026-04-17), reflect a persistent gap: recovering lithium, cobalt and nickel from spent cells is technically viable but economically marginal, because recovered material values fluctuate and collection logistics remain fragmented across suppliers and geographies.
Western Australia's Cook Labor government moved to address a related challenge on Wednesday (2026-06-03), announcing a $13 million investment to establish collection, transport and processing pathways for end-of-life solar panels and batteries from households and solar farms.2 A separate $3 million funds embedded battery collection at local government facilities, with a further $1.8 million set aside for ongoing program delivery, bringing the state's total package to $17.8 million.2
That state commitment followed the federal Labor government's January 2026 launch of a $25 million pilot program to establish up to 100 solar panel collection sites nationwide, driven by sustained industry campaigning.2 Both programmes are government-funded precisely because private-sector economics do not make the investment attractive on their own.
The mismatch in scale is visible. A combined $42.8 million in Australian federal and state funding is responding to a recycling challenge that will grow in proportion to every battery installed.2 Connected Energy claims its technology extends EV battery life by up to 60%, but Lumsden's own caveat limits how far second-life economics can defer the recycling calculation.4
Barclays has pledged a $1 trillion transition finance target, with its head of sustainable and impact investing identifying battery recycling infrastructure as part of the "missing middle" of the market.4 The label fits: recycling sits between the capital-light software layer and the capital-intensive generation layer and attracts relatively little of the financing that flows to either. How much of that trillion-dollar commitment reaches battery recycling specifically, and at what return thresholds, has not been disclosed.4
CATL's storage pivot does not resolve the end-of-life arithmetic; it enlarges it. As storage moves from 25% toward a targeted 50% of the company's sales by 2030, the eventual volume of spent stationary batteries will grow in step.3 Government recycling programmes in Western Australia and at the federal level represent a start, but the committed capital sits well below what those volumes will ultimately demand. The next signal worth tracking is whether European and US governments begin matching Australian subsidy levels — or whether the storage boom accumulates a waste problem that subsidy programmes address only after the fact.2