ICE Natural Gas Open Interest Reaches 13.4 Million Contracts as Henry Hub Holds at $2.91
Record hedging volumes on ICE's Henry Hub platform signal active risk management as mild summer weather and above-average storage weigh on near-term US gas prices.
Intercontinental Exchange reported record open interest of 13.4 million contracts in North American Financial Natural Gas futures and options on Friday (2026-07-17), a 9% rise year-on-year, while NYMEX Henry Hub front-month gas sat at $2.91/MMBtu at Friday's (2026-07-17) close.5
The surge in open interest is not a bullish price call. ICE's North American platform spans more than 70 gas hubs, and the record volumes point to wider hedging across location spreads and forward curves rather than a directional bet on the prompt contract. On the same day, ICE also reported 3.6 million contracts in global power futures — a separate record — reflecting the scale of gas-to-power demand hedging now running through the exchange.5
Near-term fundamentals have softened. EBW Analytics Group analyst Eli Rubin wrote in a report on Tuesday (2026-07-14) that milder weather was undermining near-term gas fundamentals, with the NYMEX Henry Hub August contract under pressure. US working gas inventories stood 6% above the five-year average at the end of June, according to the EIA's July short-term energy outlook, issued earlier this month.4
Yet in the same July outlook the EIA lifted its Henry Hub spot price projections for both 2026 and 2027, an acknowledgement that the current storage buffer is not expected to persist. The agency forecasts US working gas inventories will reach 3,966 Bcf by end of October — a figure that implies a healthy seasonal injection build but also leaves the market exposed to demand surprises in the weeks ahead.4
The longer-term structural argument runs in the same direction as the EIA revision. Wood Mackenzie warned in a note published on 8 July (2026-07-08) that the era of near-zero marginal cost US gas supply is ending. The share of supply derived from near-zero-cost sources is expected to fall below 20% over the next decade, the consultancy said, against a dominant role over the past ten years. With the supply curve steepening, prices will need to go higher and stay higher to bring new molecules to market, in Wood Mackenzie's view.3
That tightening is not yet visible in prompt prices. NYMEX Henry Hub front-month at $2.91/MMBtu reflects the weight of prolific shale output and a well-supplied injection season. Wood Mackenzie notes that Henry Hub remains a localised benchmark shaped by supply, demand and infrastructure conditions in southern Louisiana — a reminder that structural narratives can take years to move spot prices.3
The LNG export channel provides a more immediate transmission mechanism. JKM, the Northeast Asian benchmark, stood at $20.98/MMBtu as of Friday's (2026-07-17) close, a spread of roughly $18 per MMBtu over Henry Hub that continues to support near-full utilisation at US liquefaction terminals. That sustained export pull sets a practical floor under domestic wellhead prices even as the storage surplus accumulates.5,1
The scale of hedging activity visible in ICE's open interest data suggests financial participants do not regard $2.91 as a stable equilibrium. Henry Hub futures open interest on ICE was up 13% year-on-year as of late May (2026-05-22), well before the latest record was reached, indicating the hedging buildup has been developing across multiple months.2
The milder-than-expected summer weather that EBW Analytics flagged on Tuesday (2026-07-14) is the dominant near-term variable. If July heat across the US South and Midwest proves more persistent than current models show, gas-fired power demand would accelerate, injection-season builds would slow, and the EIA's end-October target of 3,966 Bcf would come under pressure. A cooler summer keeps the storage cushion intact and extends the window before the structural tightening thesis has anything concrete to trade.4