CorrectionThe 17 July Daily Briefing described a ~20% fall in European gas that did not happen — August TTF settled at €54.79/MWh on 16 July, essentially flat. During our platform rebuild, a retired machine running an outdated data feed briefly came back online and republished week-old settlements as live prices. The briefing has been withdrawn, and live prices are now verified against exchange settlement history before publication.
EU storage injections falling short as Hormuz disruption extends through July
Refill pace running 20% below year-ago levels; analysts warn a prolonged strait closure could leave EU stores only 70% full entering winter.
ICE Endex TTF front-month gas fell 1.5% to €54.82/MWh on Friday (2026-07-17), but the daily decline understates the supply challenge building ahead of winter. Storage injections across Europe are running at roughly 200 mcm/d, down 20% year-on-year, and at that pace EU storage sites would be only 70% full by November — well below the bloc's 80-90% target, according to analysis from European Gas Hub published in May (2026-05-19).3
The injection shortfall traces back to price structure. Seasonal spreads on ICE Endex TTF front-month averaged minus €1.2/MWh since the start of the injection season, eliminating the commercial incentive to lock in gas ahead of the winter heating period.3 Met Group Hungary's chief executive told Montel on Thursday (2026-05-07) that storage replenishment was "the most important challenge ahead," with prices consistently failing to incentivise injections.6
The Strait of Hormuz compounds the problem. Analysts told Montel on Thursday (2026-05-21) that Europe could still reach an adequate storage level of 86% before winter if the strait reopens promptly, but warned that a closure extending past July would cause prices to spike.2 With the disruption running into mid-July (2026-07-17) without resolution, that window has passed. LNG now accounts for roughly 25% of Europe's total gas supply, according to Stifel analyst Chris Wheaton speaking to CNBC that week (week of 2026-05-18) — a share built up rapidly after Russian piped imports fell from around 40% of European supply to less than 10%.4,5
The price response to the strait disruption was sharp. ICE Endex TTF front-month surged 35% on Tuesday (2026-05-19) to above €60/MWh, and was up approximately 76% on the week of 2026-05-18 as fears mounted around LNG flows through Hormuz.4 Morgan Stanley cut its ICE Endex TTF front-month price forecast for the second time in just over a month that same week, as January demand ran 22% below seasonal norms while LNG imports stayed high — pointing to supply disruption rather than demand weakness as the driver.5
Asian LNG tracked the same anxiety before pulling back. JKM tumbled to a 17-month low below $16/MMBtu during the week of 2026-05-18 as both Asia and Europe were seen emerging from winter with comfortable stocks, according to Quantum Commodity Intelligence.5 JKM has since recovered to $19.92/MMBtu by Friday (2026-07-17), reflecting renewed competition for cargoes as European buyers bid more aggressively for seaborne supply.
Analysts are pricing a scenario in which a cold winter compounds the strait disruption. Montel reported on Thursday (2026-05-21) that Italy's spot power price could surge to as high as EUR 320/MWh if a cold snap combines with the gas supply squeeze — more than double current levels — with the Iran war the primary driver.1 Italian power is particularly exposed given the country's reliance on gas-fired generation and its dependence on interconnector flows from northern neighbours.
Eni had flagged the broader European risk earlier. The Italian major's chief financial officer warned on Friday (2026-04-24) that European gas prices could rise to EUR 50/MWh or more as storage demand builds, citing supply disruption and what Eni characterised as market complacency over the Iran war.7 ICE Endex TTF front-month is already trading above that level at €54.82/MWh on Friday (2026-07-17).
The ICE Endex TTF front-month seasonal spread is the clearest signal to follow. Negative summer-winter contango signals that the market expects winter deliverability constraints; a sustained positive spread would indicate commercial buyers returning to inject at scale. Any diplomatic movement on the Strait of Hormuz could shift that picture quickly. Without it, a below-target November fill leaves little buffer against a cold draw.3,2