CorrectionOur 15 July correction to the 14 July editions itself carried an incorrect figure — August TTF settled at €53.06/MWh on 14 July, not €44.18. The cause was a stale exchange-data feed, now fixed. Read the full account →
Southeast Asia's green surge hands China a solar monopoly play
Over $200bn in regional power investment is locked into supply chains Beijing already dominates.
Southeast Asia's power demand from data centres, electric vehicles and green industrial parks will triple to more than 100 terawatt-hours within three to four years, a report by Bain & Company and Standard Chartered published on Wednesday (2026-05-20) found.1,2 Meeting it will require more than $200 billion in investment, over half of it flowing to data centres chasing faster grid connections.2,1
That demand curve reads bullish for regional gas and power.3 It also points at China, which controls more than 70% of global solar production from raw materials through cells to finished modules, according to trade figures cited by The Economist on Tuesday (2026-05-19).4
When Southeast Asian governments commit to green capacity, they are effectively writing a procurement list only one supplier can fully fill.4
The report valued the region's green economy at $290 billion, projected to reach $430 billion by 2030.2 Execution is the weak point. Only about 60% of the $540 billion in announced green investments across power and EV supply chains is considered likely to proceed under current conditions, the report found.2
The obstacles are familiar. Renewable projects in Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia have been cancelled at rates of 50% to 60% over the past five years, driven by regulatory uncertainty, permitting delays and limited grid capacity.2 That gap favours the supplier that already dominates the hardware.4
Data centre power demand across Southeast Asia will quadruple from 2.6 GW to 10.7 GW between 2025 and 2035, Wood Mackenzie said, reaching 3-4% of peak demand by 2035 from 1% in 2025.5 Those facilities need reliable, low-carbon baseload. Solar paired with battery storage is the default option, and both are markets China leads.4
Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia are also driving an EV boom that is transforming their industrial base while supporting power infrastructure stays critically underdeveloped, Thailand Business News reported on Tuesday (2026-05-19).6 Slower grid buildout could throttle the whole rollout, Bain and Standard Chartered warned.7
The politics reinforce the trade. A survey published earlier this year found 77% of policymakers and business leaders across Southeast Asia named China as the most influential economic power in the region.4
Dan Wang of Gavekal Dragonomics argues China's lead in solar technology is likely irreversible.4 For governments trying to decarbonise fast without straining budgets, there is little reason to fight that.4
The unresolved risk is the grid itself. If only 60% of announced investment proceeds, the 100 TWh demand projection could fall well short, leaving exporters with excess capacity and regional LNG buyers facing weaker baseload displacement than the headline implies.2,7
For traders watching JKM and Newcastle coal benchmarks, the signal is not the headline investment figure but the cancellation rate on the next batch of announced projects, and whether Chinese contractors step in to underwrite the ones that survive.2