CorrectionOur 15 July correction to the 14 July editions itself carried an incorrect figure — August TTF settled at €53.06/MWh on 14 July, not €44.18. The cause was a stale exchange-data feed, now fixed. Read the full account →
Europe pays Russia EUR 2.9bn for LNG in Q1 as war strains red lines
Ukraine's battlefield resilience buys Europe time, but the bloc's Russian LNG imports keep filling Kremlin coffers.
EU countries paid Russia EUR 2.9bn for about 5.1m tonnes of LNG in the first quarter, environmental group Urgewald said on Friday (2026-05-15), up from 4.3m tonnes in the same period a year earlier.1 Almost all of it came through one route. Some 97% of Yamal Arctic LNG deliveries in Q1 2026 went to the EU, the group said.1
The money reaches Moscow even as European planners increasingly treat Ukraine as the continent's front line. Europe is gaming out its future defence with little or no US help, and Kyiv sits at the centre of most of those scenarios, Foreign Policy reported on Monday (2026-06-29).8 Those same governments have not moved to stop the LNG trade that keeps Russia's flagship export terminal running.1
Ukraine's position on the ground has shifted this year. Since the start of 2026 its forces have struck military plants and energy infrastructure more than 1,000 km inside Russia, the Atlantic Council reported on Tuesday (2026-06-02), and in May Russia scaled back its Victory Day parade in Moscow.7 But the same body warned against reading too much into that, arguing that images of human-wave attacks conceal Moscow's remaining military strength.6
The production data run in parallel. Russia's natural gas output fell 3.2% in the first half of 2026 from a year earlier, reaching 334.8 bcm by June, according to Bloomberg data cited by Fullavantenews on Thursday (2026-05-21).2 LNG output dropped 5.1% to about 16.5m tonnes over the same period.2 Europe's continued buying has kept the Yamal route profitable, softening the revenue hit those lower volumes would otherwise deliver.2
Efforts to swap suppliers have run into trouble. A deal between Brussels and Baku was meant to wean Europe off Russian gas, but Azerbaijan has itself begun importing Russian gas, Eurasianet reported on Tuesday (2026-05-19), raising doubts about whether it can meet its European commitments without backfilling from Russia.5 A source close to the consortium that owns the Shah Deniz field said no new export contracts had been signed.5
Ukraine is meanwhile hunting for new partners. Kyiv has opened outreach to Turkey and Syria, where it hopes to secure access to phosphate deposits put at roughly 2bn tonnes for agricultural use, The Economist reported on Tuesday (2026-05-19).3 The overtures track a wider pivot toward non-Western partners as American reliability comes into question.3
For traders, the tension sits between Ukraine's growing military role and Europe's steady Russian LNG purchases. The ICE TTF front-month traded at €55.30 on Thursday (2026-07-16), up 1.7%, while Russian gas still moves into the European system at volume.1 That premium reflects storage refill demand rather than any break in supply.1
Whether Russian LNG becomes a policy target before winter is the live question for the market.1 The Q1 figures make it awkward: EUR 2.9bn went to Moscow from EU buyers in three months, against the $48bn in weapons and aid Washington sent Ukraine under President Biden.1,4 Cap or tax those imports and the TTF curve would reprice the winter risk.1 Until then, the flows are treated as business as usual.1