Italian minister revises 2050 power demand to 700 TWh, up 20% from 2024 estimate
With gas plants setting the Italian power price in 89% of hours this year, the minister's sharply higher demand outlook cements a long-term cost problem.
Italy's energy minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin on Monday (2026-07-13) raised his estimate of the country's 2050 power demand to 700 TWh, more than double the current annual average of 310-315 TWh and roughly 20% above the 583 TWh he projected in 2024. Data centres and electrification were cited as the main drivers.7
The upward revision is material for the Italian power market. Gas-fired plants set the price in 89% of Italian power hours so far in 2026, according to Ember data — a rate with few parallels in Europe. In Spain, which has deployed renewables more rapidly, gas was marginal in just 15% of hours over the same period. Italy's average power price in March 2026 ran at €142 per MWh against Spain's €59, a gap reflecting the structural difference in generation mix.3
Pichetto Fratin also flagged "unsustainable" gas prices on Monday (2026-07-13), pointing at the bind: faster demand growth means more gas needed at the margin to cover the gap that renewables and storage have not yet filled. ICE Endex TTF front-month traded at €51.39 on Monday (2026-07-13). At current levels the cost pressure is manageable. But analysts cited by Montel warned in May 2026 that Italian spot power could reach EUR 320/MWh in a scenario where gas prices doubled under an Iran-related supply crisis compounded by a cold snap.7,1
Data centre load is the most concrete near-term pressure. Key to Energy consultancy warned in April 2026 that data centre power demand alone could quadruple to 20 TWh by 2030, and that grid bottlenecks — not generation shortfalls — were the binding constraint. The consultancy flagged the risk that developers redirect investment to Spain or eastern Europe if Italy cannot demonstrate adequate connection capacity and timing.5
The minister's intermediate milestone sharpens the picture. Demand is projected to rise by around 50% to 2040, adding roughly 150 TWh to the current base before the full 2050 target comes into view. That implies sustained load growth across every investment and planning cycle between now and mid-century.7
Grid investment is in motion but proportionally modest. Terna, Italy's national grid operator, is committing €18bn over 2024 to 2028. France's RTE plans €100bn between 2025 and 2040; TenneT spans €200bn across the Netherlands and Germany by 2034. ENTSO-E has estimated the total European grid spend needed to meet 2050 electrification goals at around €800bn. Italy's Terna tranche will need substantial follow-on tranches if 700 TWh is genuinely the destination.4
The European Commission cleared a €23bn Italian state aid scheme for renewable capacity in June 2025, which provides one funding channel. State aid for generation does not, however, automatically resolve transmission bottlenecks or reduce gas's price-setting dominance in the near term. Renewable capacity that cannot connect to load centres adds nothing to the marginal price stack.6
Some investors are sidestepping the connection queue by repowering existing assets. In 2025, one developer signed a ten-year power purchase agreement with Italian utility A2A covering 22 GWh per year of additional solar output from 19 upgraded Italian plants. Revamping established sites avoids new grid applications while increasing generation from existing connections, an approach that Montel reported is set to spread across Europe as developers exhaust cheap greenfield sites.2,2
The core variable for the Italian power market across the next several winters is whether renewable build-out can reduce gas's share of marginal hours quickly enough to offset the demand growth Pichetto Fratin is now projecting. With gas marginal in roughly nine of ten hours at the start of 2026, the dilution required is large. Any deterioration in ICE Endex TTF front-month — already described by the minister as "unsustainable" at current levels — feeds directly into Italian PUN day-ahead, with analysts' EUR 320/MWh stress scenario representing the ceiling traders are now measuring against a structurally larger load.7,13