US Morning Demand Note, Monday, July 13, 2026
A sustained anomaly in mid-continent cooling demand is building through the 15-day window, with the Northeast now printing its largest upward revision of any zone, a run-to-run swing that warrants attention heading into the back half of July.
The synoptic picture this morning centers on above-normal heat anchored across the southern tier and extending into the Great Plains, with the pattern reinforcing rather than breaking down over the forecast period. National 15-day gas-weighted CDDs have jumped from 223 to 245 against a normal of 126, an anomaly of 118 units, nearly double the seasonal baseline. The sharpest single-day revision falls on July 19, where the run-to-run gap reaches 8.8 CDDs, suggesting model solutions are converging on a hotter outcome mid-period rather than hedging. Whether that reflects a ridge axis holding firm over the central US or a trough tracking further north than prior runs indicated will determine whether the back half of the window firms further or begins to moderate. The current trajectory is converging toward the warmer solution.
The zone packets tell a coherent story with one important wrinkle. ERCOT and the South/West are running at anomalies of 170 and 173 CDDs respectively, roughly double their seasonal norms, but both showed modest downward revisions this run (-18 and -3). These markets remain deeply above normal in absolute terms; the slight softening in the southern tier may reflect the ridge top nudging slightly, leaving peak heat intensity a degree or two off the prior run's extreme. Neither revision materially changes the power burn picture for ERCOT or Transco Zone 4, where summer demand is structurally elevated regardless of small interrun noise.
The more significant development is the Northeast, where CDDs moved from 154 to 203, a 50-unit upward revision against a normal of only 110 and a sigma of 16, putting the zone well beyond three standard deviations above climatology. Algonquin and TETCO M3 will feel this acutely if the pattern verifies; Northeast gas demand in a heat event of this magnitude competes with pipeline constraints and pulls LNG sendout into the mix. The Midwest is also printing elevated anomalies (144 CDDs above normal) with an 11-unit upward revision, reinforcing Chicago Citygate and MISO power burn estimates through the period.
Taken together, the pattern is supportive for Henry Hub and regional power prices through a cooling-demand channel, with the Northeast revision the most actionable new information from this morning's run. What changes the picture: a westward ridge retrogression that locks heat into the southern plains while releasing the Northeast, or a progressive trough dropping into the Upper Midwest before July 19 and cutting the mid-period anomaly. Neither is the model consensus this morning, but the July 19 hinge date is where to watch for the next run-to-run signal.