Trader Morning Call — Monday July 13, 2026

Trader Morning Call — Monday July 13, 2026 Weekend News to Price In - Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend after last week's renewed US strikes on ~90 Iranian military sites; reports of a fresh Iranian attack on a ship in the Gulf. This is the primary gap-risk into the open, ICE Brent front-month settled $75.22 Friday (+4.40% WoW) and the premium may extend Monday. - Kazakhstan extended its petroleum export ban six months and set up border checkpoints to curb "gasoline tourism" as Russian product shortages spread, incremental product-supply tightening, supportive of NYMEX ULSD (+6.97% WoW to $3.53/gal). - IEA cut Russia's 2026/27 oil production forecast (Ukrainian drone strikes on Omsk and other refineries) and warned renewed US-Iran conflict could flip its 2027 surplus call, bullish structural undertone. - Pacific typhoon Bavi will delay LNG deliveries into China/Japan, potentially pushing imports to multi-week lows, supportive of Platts JKM ($16.52, +2.86% WoW) on cargo diversions/discharge delays. - Half a dozen LNG carriers transited Hormuz despite hostilities (Kpler/Reuters), flows continue but headline risk is two-sided. Asia Overnight & Open Setup - JKM assessed $16.52, +2.86% WoW, Asian LNG bid on typhoon delays and Hormuz risk; European TTF likely opens firmer in sympathy. - Japanese power softer overnight: JP-Tokyo Base M+1 $19.88 (−1.58%), Kansai Base M+1 $16.20 (−1.22%), front demand easing despite CDD (Tokyo 155.4, Osaka 173.9 over 15d). - USD/JPY 161.67 (−0.42%), USD/KRW 1,498.87 (−0.51%), modest dollar softness in Asia hours; DXY 100.97 flat WoW (+0.10%). - European gas/oil indicated firmer on the weekend Hormuz escalation; expect TTF to gap up from Friday's €48.80 close. Friday's Close - ICE Endex TTF front-month €48.80 (+10.16% WoW), the standout, driven by Hormuz risk and low-wind heat. ICE UK NBP day-ahead 46.06p (+2.78% on the session, +7.48% WoW). - ICE Brent $75.22 (+4.40% WoW); NYMEX WTI $71.41 (+3.94% WoW), both closed near weekly highs on the risk premium. - NYMEX Henry Hub $2.94 (−9.54% WoW), the laggard, disconnected from the European/Asian gas bid. - German baseload front-month €103.70 (+2.33%, +5.57% WoW); EUA Dec €78.76 (−0.14%, −1.01% WoW) little-changed ahead of the ETS reform package. - VIX 15.03 (−5.11%) = risk-off tilt into the weekend; Gold $4,111 (−1.48% WoW). This Week's Calendar - Mon Jul 13, 12:00 UTC, OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. 21:00, UxC Uranium Spot Price. - Tue Jul 14, 09:00 UTC, IEA Oil Market Report (watch Russia supply downgrade detail). 12:30, US CPI (MoM) + Core CPI (Jun), the macro/DXY catalyst. - ~Jul 17, European Commission ETS reform package expected (~one week out per Carbon Pulse), binary EUA event; positioning is light into it. - Weekly EUA auctions run through the week; watch bid-cover ahead of the reform headline. Weather - NW Europe: warm and near-windless week 1. ECMWF surface winds just 2.4–3.2 m/s across Frankfurt–London–Amsterdam; Frankfurt deadest at 2.4 m/s. Low wind CF, high solar, supportive of thermal/spark demand. - Temperatures elevated: Frankfurt wk1 21.7C, Paris 23.7C; day-5 warm-bias probabilities 92–96% (Amsterdam/Frankfurt/London). Cooling demand modest (London CDD 11.5, Amsterdam 7.2 over 15d), benign, not a heat event. - Week-2 pivot: ensembles collapse toward climatology (Amsterdam day-10 warm bias 31%, Paris 47%); Frankfurt/Paris wk2 drop 4–5C. Genuine regime disagreement, treat NW wind as reliably weak to ~day 7, two-sided after. - US: broad ridge, above-normal temps most of CONUS through Jul 17–21 (Phoenix CDD 268, Houston 174, Dallas 187), HH burn support, but front-month price not reflecting it. Technicals & Levels - TTF front-month €48.65 (settle basis), +25.2% vs 200d-MA (38.85), 20d-MA 43.51, 50d-MA 46.09; 20d range 40.4–50.1, 52w 26.6–61.85 (63%ile). Testing the top of the 20d range, a break of 50.1 opens further upside; 43.5 is first support. - Brent $76.01 (settle), −3.8% vs 200d-MA (79.0), 20d-MA 75.81, 50d-MA 90.63; downtrend, 52w 58.92–118.35 (29%ile). Reclaiming the 20d-MA; 200d at ~79 is the key resistance the Hormuz premium must clear. - Henry Hub $2.94, −15.3% vs 200d-MA (3.47), 20d range 2.94–3.34, 52w 8%ile, at the bottom of the range, weakest complex. - JKM $16.52, 20d-MA 16.38, 50d-MA 17.33, +18.7% vs 200d-MA; 52w 55%ile, holding above the 20d-MA on typhoon support. Gas & LNG - EU storage 51.5% full (+1.4pp on the week, 50.1%→51.5%), injection continuing but below the 5y path. Netherlands lagging at 29.4%, Germany 43.6%, Italy 70.0%, France 50.8%. - Low-wind week raises gas-for-power burn just as TTF holds a >€48 bid, spark-supportive. - Typhoon Bavi delaying Pacific LNG into China/Japan, cargo diversions to Europe possible, but Hormuz transit risk cuts the other way (Qatari volumes exposed). - India gas demand seen −8% in 2026 (West Asia war disruptions), bearish marginal Asian pull; Oman exported 11.9 Mt in 2025 (8th-largest supplier). ADNOC ordered 4 new LNG carriers ($900m), long-dated supply signal, not a spot mover. Power & Carbon - German baseload front-month €103.70 (+2.33%); Q+1 $115.58 (+1.12%, +3.21% WoW), Cal+1 $92.98. Low wind + warm week supports prompt. - French Base M+1 +5.01% (+18.22% WoW), Peak M+1 +6.65%, the sharpest curve moves, front-month leading on the low-VRE setup. - EUA Dec €78.76 (−0.14%, −1.01% WoW), rangebound; the EU ETS reform package (~Jul 17) is the binary. UKA $55.49 (+0.14% WoW), EUA/UKA spread wide. - Day-ahead prints elevated (NL €149.66, BE €154.29, DE €145.64) on the windless regime; GB day-ahead $113.90 (−6.01% session, +17.84% WoW). Oil - Hormuz closure + renewed US-Iran strikes are the dominant driver, the geopolitical premium added ~$4/bbl last week (Brent +4.40%, WTI +3.94% WoW). - UAE output hit a record 4.1 mbpd in June (left OPEC May 1), structural supply offset to the risk premium; US rig count 581 (+44 YoY). - IEA cut Russian output forecasts on refinery strikes; Central Asia energy crunch from Russian product disruption, product markets tightest (ULSD +6.97% WoW, Diesel +7.58%, Dubai +7.27%, OPEC basket +9.32%). - OPEC MOMR at 12:00 UTC today, IEA OMR Tuesday, watch for surplus-forecast revisions given the re-escalation. Systematic & Signals - CFTC Managed Money net short Henry Hub NatGas −60,377 lots (WoW +4,677; long 238,315 / short 298,692), bearish HH positioning persists, consistent with the −9.54% WoW price. - MM net long WTI +74,679 lots but cut −19,034 WoW, trimming length into the rally; MM net short Brent (ICE) −8,998 (WoW −472), light and marginally more bearish despite the price rise, positioning is NOT chasing the Hormuz premium. - MM net long RBOB +71,543 (WoW −765) and net long Brent Last Day (NYMEX) +13,368 (WoW +5,761), product/refined length firmer than crude. - MM net long ULSD +4,803 (WoW −3,691), cut despite the +6.97% WoW price move; short-covering fuel remains. - Trend backdrop: Brent/WTI both below 50d & 200d-MAs (downtrend) while price rallies on geopolitics, a squeeze setup if length stays absent. Key Risks This Week - Hormuz escalation/de-escalation, a full closure confirmation gaps Brent through the 200d-MA (~$79); a diplomatic off-ramp unwinds the ~$4 premium fast. Positioning (Brent MM net short −8,998) is light either way. - US CPI (Tue 12:30 UTC), hot print lifts DXY (100.97) and pressures USD crude/gold; the macro swing factor for the week. - EU ETS reform package (~Jul 17), binary EUA event; EUA Dec €78.76 rangebound and under-positioned into it. - Week-2 European weather regime flip, if the Atlantic cluster verifies, wind returns and NW prompt power/gas-for-power demand fades; an 8C Frankfurt/Paris spread signals real disagreement. - Typhoon Bavi LNG delays vs Hormuz Qatari-flow risk, JKM ($16.52) and TTF (€48.80) exposed to both, and they pull in opposite directions.