US Morning Demand Note, Saturday, July 11, 2026
Cooling demand is running hot and broad: the 15-day national gas-weighted CDD stack sits at 225 easing to 204, but that still towers 78 above the 126 normal, a summer heat signal wide enough that every major consuming zone but one is lit demand-supportive. The most trading-relevant feature this morning is not the modest headline erosion (delta −22) but where the anomaly concentrates: the southern tier is anchored, while the run-to-run wobble lives in the north.
The synoptic read is a persistent ridge dominating the southern and western US, pinning the largest positive CDD departures over Texas and the desert Southwest. The runs disagree less about the ridge's core than about its northern flank, the widest single-day gap this cycle is −8.4 at the July 18 index, which is precisely where model support for the northern-tier heat softens. Read conditionally: if the ridge axis holds far enough north to keep Midwest and Northeast dewpoints elevated, those zones stay demand-heavy through the window; if it retreats south and lets the trough dig into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the northern CDD load bleeds off fast while the southern core barely notices. The national profile fading 225→204 is consistent with that northern erosion, not a southern break.
Zone by zone, the pattern prices the South hardest. ERCOT runs 342 rising to 348, an anomaly of 177 on a 22 sigma, heat that not only holds but firms across the window, the cleanest supportive signal in the set, feeding cooling burn across HSC and Waha and straining the ERCOT stack. South/West is the same story amplified: 332 building to 352, anomaly 194 on 19 sigma, the largest departure anywhere, with Transco Z4 and SoCal carrying sustained air-conditioning load. Both southern chips lit, both strengthening rather than fading, that is the ballast under the national number. The Midwest is where the run-to-run risk sits: 208 collapsing to 158 (delta −49) still leaves a 77 anomaly on 13 sigma, so the heat is real now but the trajectory is the softest, Chicago Citygate and MISO the most exposed to a northern ridge retreat. The Northeast is the mildest of the lit zones, 170 easing to 147, anomaly 38 on 15 sigma, supportive at Algonquin and TETCO M3 but the first load to give if the trough wins.
Bottom line: the market read is supportive, with Henry Hub and regional power both underpinned by cooling burn above normal across ERCOT, the Midwest, Northeast and Southwest. The southern anomalies are large and firming, so the floor under demand is southern-anchored and unlikely to move much this run. What changes the picture is the northern flank around July 18, a decisive southward ridge retreat there would pull the Midwest and Northeast contributions lower and steepen the national fade, while a run that holds the ridge north keeps the whole stack elevated. Watch the next Midwest run for confirmation of the −49 slide.