EIA Sees US Power-Sector Gas Demand Flat This Summer, Record in 2027
Federal forecasters expect gas-fired generation to hold near recent highs despite 2% demand growth, as coal and renewables absorb the increment before a 2027 record.
The US Energy Information Administration expects natural gas burned for power generation to stay near recent highs this summer and set a record next summer, according to its May Short-Term Energy Outlook published on 2026-05-28.8
That is a bigger deal than a flat number looks, because power burn is the swing consumer of American gas and a static summer reshapes the storage and pricing math heading into 2027. Overall US electricity demand is set to rise about 2% this summer, yet the EIA does not expect gas-fired generation to capture that growth.8 The increment goes elsewhere on the stack.8
Supply is not the constraint. US marketed natural gas production averaged 120.2 Bcf/d in the first quarter, up 4% from a year earlier, and the EIA expects output to keep climbing through 2027 as associated gas from higher crude drilling adds volume.7 With production rising and power burn flat, the balance leans bearish for domestic prices.7
The market has been reading it that way. Directional signals across ERCOT real-time power skew bearish, and NYMEX Henry Hub front-month sat at $2.94, well below the levels that would pull gas back to the top of the dispatch order.2
Weather has provided the only recent lift. Gas futures rose nearly 2% on Monday (2026-05-18) as forecasts turned warmer than normal across much of the US east and west coasts, with support seen near the 10-day moving average around $2.91.2 The rally faded fast. Futures faltered for the first time that week on Wednesday (2026-05-20) as weather demand eased and supply held firm.3
Underlying flows softened in the same window. EIA data showed average total gas supply down 1% versus the prior report week, with dry production also off 1%.2 Net imports from Canada fell 11% from the week of 2026-05-11 as Rover began deliveries into the Vector pipeline, pushing more US gas north.2
The infrastructure signals point at demand that is being contested, not guaranteed. Enbridge launched an open season during the week of 2026-05-18 to revive a proposed expansion of its Algonquin transmission system to serve New England demand.3 That is a bet on regional gas need, not a national burn story.3
What keeps 2027 on a record path is structural power demand that gas alone will not meet. The EIA projects electricity consumed by data-center servers will climb across the commercial building stock through 2050, with standalone data centers driving more of the growth than all other room types combined.6 That is the demand pulling the whole grid higher, even as gas holds flat this summer.6
Coal and renewables are absorbing this summer's increment. Coal still supplies roughly 35% of global electricity despite renewable expansion, with more than 2,000 GW of capacity operational worldwide.4 In the US the fleet is shrinking, but the near-term stack still has room to lean on existing plants before gas takes the marginal megawatt-hour.4
China frames why the global gas-for-power story runs in more than one direction. Chinese thermal generation, mostly coal with a small gas share, rose 1.5% in 2024 to 6.34 trillion kWh, the slowest growth in nine years outside the pandemic period.5 Total Chinese power demand grew 4.6%, and Greenpeace analysts said renewables could meet all of China's new demand growth in 2025.5
Chinese gas consumption is still climbing regardless. Apparent gas demand reached 4,260.5 x 10^8 m3 in 2024, up 8.0% year on year, with domestic production up 4.7% in an eighth straight year of growth.1 Rising Asian gas appetite supports Platts JKM LNG front-month, which sat at $16.52, and by extension the LNG pull that competes with US domestic burn for cargoes.1
The unresolved question is whether the 2027 record arrives through gas or gets diverted. If data-center load ramps faster than renewable and storage additions, gas captures the marginal demand the EIA now assigns elsewhere. Watch the forecast-versus-actual gap on summer power burn, weekly dry-production prints against the 120 Bcf/d first-quarter run rate, and whether warmer weather can hold Henry Hub above its $2.91 support into injection season.8,72