Goldman Adds SMRs to Nuclear Model, Lifts Uranium Demand Forecast 17%
Wall Street's new reactor assumptions add 62 million pounds to long-term procurement math, pulling small modular reactors inside the commodity's visible demand horizon.
Goldman Sachs has added small modular reactors to its global nuclear model for the first time, lifting its uranium demand forecast by 17% and adding 62 million pounds to its long-term procurement estimates4. The bank's updated Nuclear Nuggets reactor tracker, published Tuesday (2026-05-19), incorporates roughly 46 GW of SMR deployments by 2045, pushing total nuclear generation forecasts 6% above the prior baseline4,3.
Most Wall Street uranium models have treated SMRs as a decade-away novelty. Goldman now counts the technology as a demand driver inside the commodity's visible horizon, part of a buildout the bank says continues to broaden and accelerate3,5.
Uranium spot prices are holding in the mid-to-high $80s per pound, with term pricing near $90, according to the bank's report4. Citi analysts have forecast prices rising as high as $125 per pound this year, arguing resurgent nuclear interest drives uranium demand to outstrip supply1.
The demand case rests on stated government ambition. The U.S. government wants to quadruple nuclear capacity from roughly 100 GW in 2024 to 400 GW by 20502. Bank of America has pegged the total nuclear market opportunity at $10 trillion2.
But supply stays concentrated. Cameco produced about 17% of the world's uranium in 2024, second only to Kazakhstan's Kazatomprom at 21%, with Orano the next closest at 11%2. That leaves the market exposed to any disruption in Kazakhstan or Canada.
Cameco also holds a 49% stake in Westinghouse, the engineering firm designing an SMR and now part of an $80 billion agreement with the U.S. government to build new reactors for AI deployment, announced Thursday (2026-05-21)2. The tie-up connects reactor design directly to utility-scale procurement.
Longer-range demand forecasts run higher still. The World Nuclear Association projects uranium demand climbing about 28% by 2030 and more than 100% by 20402. The International Energy Agency sees global nuclear capacity rising more than 50% from 2025 to 20501.
The risk is execution. SMR timelines have slipped repeatedly, and the 46 GW Goldman now models still faces regulatory approval and construction lead times before any of it turns into physical uranium offtake4,3. A reactor delay that pushes SMR commissioning well past the modelled dates would erase much of the incremental demand the bank is pricing in.
For now, the equity market is buying the thesis. The Uranium ETF (URA) closed at $42.97 at Friday's close (2026-07-10), up 1.15% on the session, against a spot backdrop the bank puts in the mid-to-high $80s and term near $904. Whether utility term contracting follows spot higher, or buyers wait before locking in the volumes Goldman expects, is the next test of the forecast1.