US Morning Demand Note, Friday, July 10, 2026
The headline this morning is not the 17-unit pullback in the national gas-weighted CDD strip, it is the anomaly sitting underneath it. At 242 before this run and 225 after, the 15-day tally still runs 99 units above the 126-unit seasonal normal. The revision trims the peak but leaves the market structure intact: cooling demand is roughly twice the seasonal baseline across most of the country, and the run-to-run evolution shows differentiated behaviour across basins that matters for which hubs actually get priced.
ERCOT is moving in the opposite direction to the national composite. While most zones shed CDDs, the Texas strip added 11 units, 331 to 342, and now sits 171 above its 171-unit normal, a symmetry that reflects how little slack exists between current load and the seasonal ceiling. The HSC and Waha hubs are the direct transmission point: sustained heat in the Gulf Coast corridor, with the ERCOT anomaly essentially doubling normal demand, keeps power burn elevated and suppresses any meaningful congestion relief on gas flows from the Permian toward the coast.
The Midwest absorbed the second-largest absolute trim, losing 14 units to land at 208. The anomaly there remains 127 above the 81-unit normal, so Chicago Citygate and MISO are still pricing a heavily above-average load environment, even after the revision. The run-to-run erosion is more notable in character: it points to a trough or shortwave working through the mid-continental flow around mid-month, which is where the widest single-day gap of -9.6 CDDs at July 20 appears. That date is the first thing to watch, if subsequent runs confirm the trough deepens rather than lifts quickly, Midwest CDDs could underperform relative to the current strip.
The Northeast carries the sharpest revision: 26 units lost, from 196 to 170. The anomaly compresses to 61 above the 108-unit normal, still supportive for Algonquin and TETCO M3, but the gap to normal has narrowed enough that a further southward run shift would start to test bullish assumptions on the intraday power curve. The Algonquin complex is the most sensitive single point to a continued northeastern moderating trend.
South and West shed 18 units to 332, but the anomaly at 174 above a 159-unit normal means the corridor from Transco Zone 4 through SoCal remains in a heavy cooling-demand posture. The SoCal zone, where natural gas for power burn intersects with a structurally tight pipeline environment, is the most direct transmission of that anomaly into storage draw patterns.
What changes the picture from here is confirmation of the July 20 trough event. If runs over the weekend show the mid-month erosion deepening, especially if it begins to extend from the Midwest into the Northeast, the national CDD strip would face continued downside. ERCOT's counter-move is the counterargument: Gulf Coast ridging persistence has recently been the feature that anchors the broader summer heat pattern. So long as the Texas anomaly holds or builds, the floor under HH and regional power remains above-normal cooling demand even if the northern tier moderates. Watch Monday's 00Z run for whether the July 20 trough becomes a trough-and-recovery or the leading edge of a wider pattern shift.