Asia Crude Imports Stay Depressed as Post-Hormuz Backlog Builds
Asian arrivals remain 6 million barrels per day below pre-war norms even as the strait reopens, with China deliberately holding back purchases.
Dubai crude rose 4.52% to $70.48 on Friday (2026-07-10), even as Asia's crude imports in June remained nearly 6 million barrels per day below pre-war norms — a gap that reflects how much the Strait of Hormuz disruption has distorted both pricing and procurement patterns across the region.6
Asia absorbed 20.71 million barrels per day of crude in June (2026-06-30), according to Kpler data cited by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell, against a pre-February 28 average of 26.79 million bpd. May's 20.39 million bpd was fractionally lower, suggesting only the thinnest recovery despite the strait reopening in mid-June (2026-06-18).6
China, the region's dominant buyer, is choosing restraint over accumulation. Kpler tracked 5.8 million bpd of Chinese imports in June, down from 6.8 million bpd in May — reflecting barrels purchased, or not purchased, when prices spiked during the April and May peak of the disruption. Beijing held back when cargoes were expensive; the June arrivals show the consequence.6
The strait between Oman and Iran had handled an average of 21 million bpd in 2022, or roughly 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption, according to the EIA. When U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran effectively shut it after February 28, the closure removed the largest single corridor for petroleum in global trade.1,3 Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait moved to reroute what they could.
Saudi Aramco's East-West crude pipeline, rated at 5 million bpd and expanded to 7 million bpd in 2019 by converting gas liquids lines, carries eastern field production to the Red Sea at Yanbu. The UAE's Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline moves around 1.5 million bpd to the Fujairah terminal on the Gulf of Oman. EIA estimates put total effective bypass capacity at roughly 3.5 million bpd — enough to offset a fraction of what had previously transited the strait.1
Asian buyers responded to the supply gap by turning to alternatives. West Africa, the Americas, Brazil, Guyana and Norway all stepped in. The Economist reported from March 2nd (2026-03-02) that Brazilian barrels for May delivery to China were offered at a $2 premium to their usual spread as Pacific spot demand intensified. The cost of hedging Atlantic crude sales into Asia, as reflected in Dubai benchmark differentials, surged.4
The physical market showed the scale of disruption in other ways. Three tankers carrying a combined 6 million barrels of Gulf crude exited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday (2026-05-18) with tracking systems switched off, according to Kpler and LSEG data, to avoid Iranian interference as commercial transit cautiously resumed.2
By mid-June (2026-06-18), more than 60 million barrels held in the Persian Gulf were lining up to transit to Asian markets, Kpler tracking showed.5 That backlog is now clearing, and it is partly responsible for Friday's (2026-07-10) Dubai crude gain. But the re-entry of cargoes loaded at elevated war-risk premiums has given Asian refiners little reason to rush. ICE Brent crude front-month traded at $76.09 on Friday (2026-07-10), with the Brent-Dubai spread reflecting the current risk premium gap between Atlantic and Middle Eastern grades.
The procurement patterns built during three months of necessity may prove durable. Atlantic crude routes now have established logistics, credit lines and refinery configurations behind them. Saudi Aramco typically sells via long-term contracts, not spot tenders — the 60 million barrel backlog created a rare exception, as Gulf producers competed for placement in a period of buyer caution. If Saudi spot offers persist into third-quarter nominations, it would signal the kingdom is defending market share, not clearing an operational backlog. That would add downward pressure to Dubai pricing and narrow the economics for Atlantic crudes that expanded their Asia footprint during the crisis.
August cargo nominations will be the first clean read. China's June restraint at 5.8 million bpd suggests Beijing is watching Dubai pricing closely before committing to larger volumes — the kingdom's next move in the spot market will help determine whether that patience is rewarded.6