EU Russian Gas Imports Rose 7% in Early 2026 Despite Phase-Out Push
EU regulator Acer data show pipeline and LNG volumes both climbing year-on-year through May, exposing a gap between sanctions policy and contractual reality.
The EU imported 7% more pipeline gas and 11% more LNG from Russia in the first five months of 2026 than in the same period a year earlier, EU regulator Acer said in a report released on Wednesday (2026-07-01). Russian gas accounted for 12% of EU gas demand over the period — a share that has grown even as Brussels pursues plans to eliminate dependence on Moscow entirely.7
The divergence between policy and supply flows stems largely from long-term contracts signed before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Existing Russian LNG and pipeline gas deals in the EU amount to 45 to 55 billion cubic metres per year, Acer said, with the year-on-year increase "likely" attributable to those contractual arrangements, which remain legally binding for European utilities. Authorised LNG contracts alone accounted for 20 to 32 billion cubic metres per year through end of May, with volumes arriving at EU terminals under agreements that pre-date the current sanctions regime.7
The EU adopted a ban on spot Russian LNG imports — short-term deals lasting less than one year — that took effect on Saturday (2026-05-16), under sanctions adopted last October in response to Russia's war on Ukraine. The bloc also banned LNG terminal services for Russian companies and prohibited maintenance for Russia's LNG tankers and icebreakers, under measures adopted on Thursday (2026-04-23). Neither set of restrictions applies to volumes delivered under pre-existing long-term supply agreements.2,6
That exemption has made the EU's stated phase-out ambitions harder to translate into actual flow reductions in the near term. Russian gas accounted for 45% of EU imports as recently as 2021. It has since fallen to 18%, according to data from Trading Economics — a structural reduction driven by infrastructure investment, demand switching, and the loss of pipeline transit routes after 2022. But the contractual tail is proving durable, and 2026 import data suggest volumes are, for now, moving in the wrong direction for Brussels.3,4
Greece has emerged as an illustration of how Russian LNG continues to move through EU infrastructure even as restrictions tighten. In the first quarter of 2026, Greece's LNG imports grew by more than a third year on year, reaching 14.90 terawatt-hours from 10.96 terawatt-hours a year earlier, according to TSO Desfa. LNG accounted for 56% of Greece's total gas imports in the period. Greek gas demand rose 18.5% year on year to 26.42 TWh — not because domestic consumption climbed, but because the country nearly quadrupled exports to neighbouring markets, with outbound volumes reaching 5.99 TWh (0.56 bcm), primarily of regasified LNG.1
Greece's role as a transit corridor means that Russian LNG entering one EU member under a grandfathered contract can flow onward to others through interconnection. The practical effect is that volumes permitted at one entry point diffuse across the wider market regardless of the restrictions in place at national borders.
On the Russian side, the picture is more constrained. Gazprom recorded losses of almost $7 billion in 2023 — its first annual loss since 1999 — as European revenue dried up after the rupture in transit arrangements. Russia has since revised its 2025 energy forecasts, cutting projections for gas exports and production while raising oil export targets. Russian gas production reached approximately 334.8 billion cubic metres by mid-2025, down 3.2% on the prior year, while LNG output fell 5.1% to around 16.5 million tonnes over the same period.4,5
Exports via the Power of Siberia pipeline to China are projected to rise more than 20% this year to reach the line's maximum capacity of 38 billion cubic metres annually — but eastbound volumes have not replaced the margin once earned from European customers. Gazprom's 2023 losses reflect that arithmetic: China imports at negotiated prices substantially below the spot rates European buyers once paid.5
The ICE Endex TTF front-month was trading at around €45.19 per megawatt-hour on Friday (2026-07-03), a level at which Russian supplies remain commercially attractive for utilities holding long-term offtake agreements. The EU's maintenance ban on Arctic LNG tankers may yet create supply-side constraints that flow data do not yet reflect — Russia's icebreaker-class fleet serves export facilities whose operational integrity depends on routine servicing that European contractors can no longer provide. Acer's report did not specify when existing contracts expire, leaving the pace of import decline uncertain.7,6