Wood Mackenzie Says Burnham Government Could Lift UK Gas Output 25% by 2030
Incoming prime minister faces an £18bn North Sea decision as consultancy estimates right policies could add 330bn cubic feet of gas annually.
The incoming Burnham administration could unlock around 330 billion cubic feet of additional gas from North Sea discoveries by 2030, equivalent to roughly a quarter of Britain's current annual production, if it adopts the right fiscal and licensing policies, according to Wood Mackenzie analysis published Wednesday (2026-07-01).4
That assessment lands at a politically charged moment. Keir Starmer's resignation has set up Andy Burnham to lead a new Labour cabinet later this month, and Wood Mackenzie says the incoming team faces an £18 billion decision on the future of North Sea resources, with investment already contracting under the current fiscal regime. NBP front-month gas was trading at €44.14 on Wednesday (2026-07-01), up 0.98% on the session, while ICE Endex TTF front-month stood at €43.37, flat on the day, levels that make North Sea development economics more viable than when the energy profits levy was designed, though fiscal terms remain the primary deterrent.4
Britain's effective upstream tax rate stands at 78%, among the highest in the world for a mature basin, according to the Economist's analysis of the North Sea's trajectory. That rate, raised repeatedly during the post-2022 energy price surge, has depressed drilling activity and accelerated decommissioning timelines.2
The scale of what Wood Mackenzie is quantifying matters for UK energy security as much as for the public finances. The North Sea supplied revenues equivalent to 3% of British GDP at peak in the mid-1980s; output has since fallen to a fraction of that and the basin is in structural decline. The question for Burnham's administration is whether a revised fiscal approach can meaningfully slow that decline, or whether the investment window has already passed.2
Norway offers a partial reference point. Oslo approved development plans in May (2026-05-19) for three southern North Sea gas fields to resume production in 2028 after 30 years of closure: Albuskjell, Vest Ekofisk and Tommeliten Gamma. Norwegian upstream policy has historically offered lower effective tax rates and greater long-term stability than the UK, which partly explains why the same geological basin continues to attract Norwegian capital.1
Wood Mackenzie's 330 billion cubic feet estimate carries important caveats. The figure represents potential from new discoveries, not committed projects, and the consultancy conditions the scenario on "the right policies" — a formulation that covers fiscal terms, licensing speed and regulatory certainty. None of those are guaranteed under a government still assembling its cabinet.4
Labour's energy posture under Starmer prioritised renewables buildout and Great British Energy, the state-owned clean power entity, while maintaining the energy profits levy on fossil fuel producers. That created conditions that upstream operators and industry body OEUK described as incompatible with new North Sea investment. Whether Burnham's team revises those settings, partially reverses them, or uses the political reset to redesign the regime entirely is not yet known.3
Fiscal revenue and gas import dependency are both in play. The UK is already a net gas importer, and declining North Sea production increases exposure to global LNG prices and European hub volatility. The £18 billion figure Wood Mackenzie cites likely refers to the capital that could be mobilised from the undeveloped resource base under a revised regime, though the packet does not specify the tax assumption embedded in that estimate.4
The first concrete signal will be Burnham's energy and Treasury appointments, and whether budget or consultation announcements later this year signal a break from the Starmer-era levy stance or confirm that the North Sea is to be managed down rather than extended.4