Russia Cuts 2026 Pipeline Gas Exports to EU by 10%, Absorbs Fresh LNG Sanctions
Moscow's own projections show a 10.7% decline in EU-bound pipeline volumes this year as Brussels extends its ban to LNG terminal services.
Russia expects pipeline gas exports to markets outside the former Soviet Union to fall 10.7% in 2026 to 72 billion cubic metres, its economy ministry's projections show, a figure that reverses earlier government expectations for stability and marks another step in what has become a near-total unwinding of the country's European gas franchise.4
The volume decline comes as Brussels moves to close what remained open. The EU adopted a ban on LNG terminal services for Russian companies on Thursday May 21 (2026-05-21), alongside a prohibition on maintenance for the country's LNG tankers and icebreakers, the European Commission announced.2 That followed the entry into force, on Saturday May 16 (2026-05-16), of the EU's ban on short-term Russian LNG imports — prohibiting spot contracts of less than one year's duration under sanctions adopted in October 2025.1 Together, the two measures target both the regas infrastructure and the contractual form that had kept Russian LNG flowing into European terminals even after pipeline volumes collapsed.
Russia's government still expects its LNG export volumes to edge up 3% in 2026 to 35.7 million metric tons, though that figure is below what was previously forecast.4 Physical output tells a different story: Russia's total gas production through the first half of the year ran 3.2% below the prior-year period at roughly 334.8 billion cubic metres, while LNG production specifically declined 5.1% to around 16.5 million tons over the same window, according to federal statistics data.5 A government projecting export growth from a base of falling production is relying on drawdowns of storage or curtailments of domestic supply — neither of which is straightforward.
The structural backdrop is familiar but the numbers still illustrate the scale of the shift. Russian gas now accounts for 18% of European imports, down from 45% in 2021, and the bloc's oil imports from Russia have fallen to 3% from around 30% over the same period.4 State-owned Gazprom recorded losses of approximately $7 billion in 2023 — its first annual loss since 1999 — as the EU market that had underpinned its finances vanished.4 Oil and gas export revenues for 2026 were revised down to $215.2 billion from $220.4 billion in Moscow's previous estimates, while the 2025 projection was nudged up modestly to $206.1 billion.4
China's Power of Siberia pipeline offers the most concrete partial offset. Exports via that route are projected to increase more than 20% in 2026, reaching the pipeline's contracted ceiling of 38 billion cubic metres annually.5 But the infrastructure capacity caps the volume at a level that cannot substitute for what Europe once absorbed. Moscow has raised its 2025 oil export forecast to 240.1 million tons from 229.7 million tons previously, leaning on oil to compensate for gas shortfalls.3
European replacement infrastructure is being assembled in the meantime. Bulgaria's Balkan Gas Hub launched a new LNG auction service on Wednesday April 15 (2026-04-15), targeting volumes to displace Russian pipeline flows expected to end when the EU's planned phase-out takes hold.8 A Hungarian trader quoted by Montel at the time said LNG demand in the region would grow as Russian pipeline deliveries stop in 2027.
There is one dimension the ban cannot easily address. A trading firm specialising in LNG told Montel in May that some European buyers may pursue informal channels to continue receiving Russian supply after the phase-out, arguing that the incentive for buyers facing higher-cost alternatives would be strong.7 ACER, the EU energy markets regulator, covers LNG market monitoring in its 2026 reporting cycle, suggesting Brussels is treating oversight of remaining Russian flows as a live issue.6
ICE Endex TTF front-month natural gas stood at €43.53 on July 1, up slightly on the session, a level that reflects a market that has absorbed Russian supply reduction steadily rather than abruptly. How far the new terminal services ban constrains Russia's ability to maintain or expand its Arctic LNG volumes — and whether informal European purchases survive the tightening contractual framework — will determine whether Moscow's 35.7 million ton LNG export projection holds.