China Accounts for 62% of Global CO2 Rise Despite Record Renewable Additions
A new emissions breakdown shows China responsible for nearly two-thirds of global carbon dioxide growth this century, even as its solar capacity surged 45% last year.
China's installed solar capacity expanded 45.2% in 2024 and wind capacity rose 18%, according to figures published Sunday (2026-06-29) by OilPrice.com. The numbers are striking in isolation. They sit alongside an assessment drawing on the Statistical Review of World Energy that China accounts for roughly 62% of the total global increase in carbon dioxide emissions since 2000.6
Global annual CO2 emissions have risen by about 14 billion metric tons this century, according to the Statistical Review. China's contribution to that increase is approximately 8.8 billion metric tons. U.S. emissions, over the same period, are down by nearly 1 billion metric tons annually.6
The gap between China's renewable deployment and its emissions trajectory reflects the pace of demand growth. In the first quarter of 2026, total Chinese power generation rose an estimated 6.6% year-on-year, but weak wind conditions, subdued solar output, and extended nuclear refuelling outages pushed coal generation higher for the fourth consecutive month, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.2
New coal capacity is coming online at a pace that complicates the picture. Thermal power commissioning in the first quarter of 2026 surged more than 160% year-on-year, hitting a record high, Centre data show. Solar capacity additions, in the same period, fell 31% year-on-year against a high comparative base from early 2025, while wind additions grew 8%.2
April brought additional pressure. Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz pushed Chinese crude oil imports down roughly 20% year-on-year and natural gas imports fell around 13%, according to the Centre, leaving domestic coal generation to absorb the shortfall.2
Europe has moved in the opposite direction. Renewable power generation across the EU reached a record 384.9 TWh in the first quarter of this year, up 14.5% on the same period in 2025, according to Montel EnAppSys data published in May. Solar output hit 52.6 TWh in the quarter, the highest first-quarter reading on record and 15% above the year-earlier level.1
Coal remains the world's largest electricity source, at roughly 35% of global generation, according to GlobalElectricity.org. But that headline share masks diverging paths: the U.S. and Europe are retiring coal-fired capacity while China and parts of Asia continue to commission new plant.3
Longer-term projections run well ahead of China's stated targets. The Economist reported in May 2026 that China could install up to 4,500 GW of wind and solar by 2035, against a pledged target of 3,600 GW, sufficient in theory to supply half of 2026-level electricity demand without fossil fuels. In the U.S., analysts project installed solar reaching around 737.8 GW by 2035, up from approximately 231.4 GW in 2024.5,4
Whether China's clean energy additions eventually drive absolute emissions lower depends on whether they displace coal generation rather than run alongside it. In the first half of 2024, China's solar curtailment rate ran at about 3%, the Economist noted, suggesting most output was reaching the grid. The record pace of new coal commissioning in early 2026 puts that relationship under pressure as total generation capacity expands faster than underlying demand.5,2