AI Data Centres Drive US Gas Power Expansion as Other Economies Shift Course
BloombergNEF analysis and EIA projections show US gas-fired generation set to grow as artificial intelligence load outpaces planned renewable additions.
Data centres used approximately 4.6% of total U.S. electricity in 2024 and could account for nearly three times that share by 2028, according to government projections — a load surge that is rewriting long-range gas demand forecasts and keeping gas-fired capacity in service across the United States.6 BloombergNEF found that the data centre expansion driven by artificial intelligence will keep fossil fuels in use for longer, as AI infrastructure creates a demand profile that clean-energy buildouts are not yet equipped to serve at scale.5
The structural shift is embedded in the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2026, which projects server consumption in standalone data centres will increase substantially through mid-century, with the trajectory steepest in the near term.7 Lower 48 marketed gas production averaged 117.2 billion cubic feet per day in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26), 4% above the year-ago level, and the EIA expects a further 3% increase by year-end.1 NYMEX Henry Hub front-month traded at $3.30 as of Sunday (2026-06-28).
The corporate retreat from clean-energy targets has reinforced the demand case. Google described its 2030 carbon-free electricity goal as a "moonshot" as of May 2026 (2026-05-19), having positioned it for six years as a firm commitment. Microsoft acknowledged it must remain flexible as it builds data centres that can individually consume more power than a mid-sized city.6 Neither company has formally abandoned its climate targets, but the operational need for continuous, around-the-clock firm power — which intermittent renewables cannot supply without substantial storage — has softened the timelines considerably.
That dynamic sets the United States apart from other large economies. The IEA's Electricity 2026 report projects the combined share of renewables and nuclear in the global power mix will reach 50% by the end of this decade, with natural gas also growing but largely at coal's expense in regions with carbon pricing or fuel-switch economics.3 In Europe, incremental electricity demand is expected to flow toward renewable and nuclear capacity rather than new gas plant build. Japan has moved to restart nuclear units and diversify LNG import sources after supply disruptions linked to Middle East shipping routes, while still meeting roughly 32% of its electricity needs through gas-fired generation.2 Coal, still the world's largest electricity source at approximately 35% of global supply, is declining in developed markets but holding or rising across China and Southeast Asia.4
The IEA estimates global power demand will grow 3.6% annually between 2026 and 2030, driven by AI infrastructure, electric vehicles and industrial electrification, and warns that annual grid investment will need to rise 50% from $400 billion to meet projected load growth.8 Within the United States, grid interconnection backlogs have slowed renewable additions, while AI-driven load has concentrated in data centre clusters where gas remains the marginal generation source.
Production is expanding to match the anticipated demand. The Permian Basin is forecast to reach 29.2 Bcf/d in 2026, 6% above 2025 levels, and the EIA projects Permian output will grow 10% in 2027 as pipeline constraints ease.1 The Haynesville shale — a gas-dominant basin whose output closely tracks power-sector burn — is projected to grow 6% in 2026 and 8% in 2027, signalling that producers are betting on sustained industrial demand beyond the normal cyclical pattern.1
The risk is timing. Data centre project announcements have repeatedly preceded actual commissioning by wide margins, leaving producers building toward load curves that have not yet appeared in consumption data. If permitting delays or supply-chain bottlenecks push completions out, some of the Haynesville and Permian capacity already under development would arrive ahead of the demand it was designed to serve, creating temporary oversupply pressure on Henry Hub.
The pace of Haynesville production additions in the second half of 2026 will be the clearest indicator of whether the upstream sector believes the AI load forecast is firm enough to sustain further capital commitment.