US Bets $2.7 Billion on Nuclear Fuel as Countries Race to Break Russian Enrichment Hold
A global push for nuclear fuel independence leaves European utilities still exposed to Russian enriched uranium for years ahead.
Western governments are moving in parallel to secure nuclear fuel supply chains as countries seek to reduce dependence on Russian enrichment capacity — a commodity that sanctions have so far left largely intact.6
The US Department of Energy earmarked $2.7 billion in January 2026 to expand domestic uranium enrichment capacity over the next decade, the largest single federal commitment to the nuclear fuel cycle in a generation. Britain moved earlier and into higher-grade territory: the UK government allocated £300 million in January 2024 to support production of high-assay low-enriched uranium, known as HALEU, the richer fuel required by advanced reactor designs at the centre of most new nuclear build programmes.6
The investments target a gap that sanctions have so far failed to close. Russian pipeline gas to Europe has fallen from 45% of imports in 2021 to 18%, while crude oil has dropped from roughly 30% to 3% over the same period. Enriched uranium has moved far more slowly out of Russian hands, partly because substituting enrichment capacity takes years of capital investment rather than months of redirected tankers.1
The European Commission illustrated the difficulty. Earlier this year it pledged to release plans for taxes or levies on Russian enriched uranium, with the aim of phasing out its use alongside measures to halt imports of Russian gas by 2027. It soon relented, delaying the uranium plans. The Economist attributed the reversal partly to the absence of alternative supply at the required scale and timeline.3
Centrus Energy, America's only commercial uranium enricher, reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $76.7 million, with net income falling to $10 million as the company scales operations largely dormant during decades of cheap Russian supply. Despite the thinner margins, Centrus raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to between $450 million and $500 million, supported by a backlog of Department of Energy-backed enrichment work.2
The uranium spot market has repriced the dependency. Spot uranium stood at approximately $86.55 per pound as of May 1, 2026, up 24% over the trailing twelve months, according to Business Insider market data. TradeTech's monthly long-term price indicator reached $93 per pound in March 2026, its highest level in more than 18 years. The uranium ETF URA closed at $43.59 at Friday's close (June 27, 2026).4
Russia's broader energy accounts show why enrichment revenue matters to Moscow. Gazprom posted losses of nearly $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, as European buyers abandoned its pipeline network. Russian pipeline gas exports outside the former Soviet Union are projected to fall another 10.7% in 2025 to 72 billion cubic metres, according to Russian economy ministry forecasts.1
Oil has partially compensated. The ministry document revised Russian oil export volumes up to 240.1 million tonnes for 2025, from a prior forecast of 229.7 million tonnes, pushing combined oil and gas export revenues to $206.1 billion — above the $200.3 billion previously estimated, though the 2026 estimate was cut to $215.2 billion from $220.4 billion. Gas erosion is real, but Moscow retains hydrocarbons revenues that cushion the loss.1
The enrichment investment timeline carries its own risk. DoE capacity projections assume a significant decline in conventional light-water reactor capacity from 92 gigawatts — as of early June 2026 — but the authors acknowledge the assumption may no longer hold given strong momentum toward relicensing existing reactors and even reopening closed ones. If the US reactor fleet proves more durable than models assume, enrichment demand in 2035 could substantially exceed what the $2.7 billion commitment was sized to meet.5
The EC's delay on uranium levies means European utilities will remain exposed to Russian enrichment contracts for longer than political statements suggested. Whether Washington's decade-long build-out keeps pace with that exposure — and whether Brussels eventually acts — will be measured partly by whether TradeTech's long-term uranium price holds above $90 per pound as new Western capacity comes online.3,4