US Record Crude Exports and Inventory Plunge Expose Tension at Heart of Trump Energy Policy
US crude and product exports hit a record 14.2 million barrels per day in mid-May as total stocks fell by 24 million barrels in a week, compounding domestic price pressure amid a Hormuz-driven supply shock.
US exports of crude oil and petroleum products reached a record 14.2 million barrels per day for the week ending May 11 (2026-05-11) — 33% higher than the equivalent week in 2025 — even as total US stocks of crude and products, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell by approximately 24.1 million barrels in the same week, one of the five largest weekly inventory declines on record, according to Energy Information Administration data cited by Wood Mackenzie.3
The divergence between record export volumes and accelerating domestic inventory drawdowns became politically acute by mid-May. A Gallup poll for the week of May 18 (2026-05-18) showed that 55% of Americans said their personal financial situation was getting worse — a record high in the 25-year history of that survey. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation came in at 3.2% for March, the highest reading since November 2023, according to figures released in the same week.3
The Economist, writing in mid-May (2026-05-17), described the Iran war's economic fallout as the principal domestic threat to the Trump presidency: an unpopular conflict combined with costly fuel, with the administration simultaneously claiming military success while energy markets registered the cost of choking off 10-15% of global oil supply.5
The European gas market registered the conflict's full force in successive spikes. EU benchmark front-month TTF gas prices jumped nearly 18% late on Sunday (2026-05-17) after Trump announced the US would impose a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace negotiations, Montel reported.2 Then again on Tuesday (2026-05-19), TTF rose a further 3% as Trump's deadline to Iran to reopen the Strait loomed, with traders pricing in a protracted conflict and long-term supply disruption.1
Goldman Sachs, as of mid-May, estimated that tanker traffic through the Strait had fallen by roughly 90%, temporarily removing around 18% of global oil supply from the market, and warned that oil markets could reach "demand destruction" levels if the disruption continued.4 The bank also revised upward its Q2 2026 forecast for European TTF to approximately $22 per MMBtu — a forecast that assumed sustained Hormuz closure.4
ICE Endex TTF front-month stands at €41.08 as of Friday's (2026-06-26) close, well above pre-conflict levels but substantially below the acute-phase spikes that followed Trump's blockade announcement in mid-May. The spread between where Goldman was forecasting and where the market is now pricing reflects the partial de-escalation in Iranian diplomatic talks and the ceasefire extension — but ICE Brent crude front-month at $73.08 and NBP UK gas at €43.66 still carry a premium that would not be there under normal Hormuz operating conditions.
Earlier in the conflict, Brent traded below $90 as Trump signalled the conflict could wind down — before the blockade announcement reversed the move. Wood Mackenzie noted in mid-May (2026-05-20) that three weeks earlier, Trump had referenced "massive numbers" of empty tankers en route to the US; for the week of May 11, that fleet had begun loading, driving the export record.3 The mechanics illustrate the core tension: US oil infrastructure is optimised for export at scale, but deploying that export capacity while domestic stocks are falling and consumers face record-high cost-of-living stress is an inherently unstable political equilibrium.
On the supply side, measures targeting Iranian output were estimated at the time to potentially cut production by more than 2 million barrels per day, according to OilPrice.com analysis from mid-May (2026-05-19).4 Whether those losses persist or recover — and at what pace — depends on how quickly Strait of Hormuz transit normalises after any agreement. For domestic US gasoline prices, the inventory trajectory and export pace heading into the summer driving season are the two numbers that matter most heading into July.3