US Crude Inventories Post Biggest Weekly Draw in Months, SPR at Lowest Since 2024

US commercial crude inventories fell 7.9 million barrels in the week ending May 15, the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday, more than double the 3.4 million barrels analysts had forecast. The draw pushed commercial stocks to 445.0 million barrels, 2% below the five-year average. The American Petroleum Institute had flagged an even steeper 9.1-million-barrel decline the evening before. The data underscores how quickly the Hormuz crisis is reshaping US crude balances. Despite the past week's moves, commercial inventories are still 26 million barrels above where they stood at the start of 2026, reflecting the scale of the earlier build before the strait's effective closure in late February. The week's headline figure was dwarfed by what happened to government reserves. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve shed 9.9 million barrels — the largest single-week withdrawal on record — leaving SPR stocks at 374.2 million barrels, the lowest since July 2024 and 351 million barrels below maximum capacity. Combined commercial and SPR inventories fell 24.1 million barrels, one of the five largest weekly total-stock declines on record according to Wood Mackenzie. Product markets tightened further. Gasoline stocks dropped 1.5 million barrels, following a 4.1-million-barrel draw the prior week, and now sit 5% below the five-year average. Distillate inventories, already 9% below the five-year average as of May 8, fell another 1 million barrels according to API, though EIA recorded a modest 400,000-barrel build. The driving force behind the drawdowns is exports. US crude and petroleum product shipments hit 14.2 million barrels per day last week, 33% above the same period in 2025, as buyers scrambled for non-Middle Eastern barrels. The EIA estimates six nations collectively shut in 10.5 million bpd in April following the Hormuz closure. US crude production climbed to 13.71 million bpd in the week ending May 8, up 323,000 bpd year-on-year, but that incremental supply has not been enough to offset the export drain. Prices whipsawed across the two-day reporting window. Brent was trading at $111.10 before the API release Tuesday afternoon, down 0.87% on the day after President Trump paused planned strikes on Iran, but still roughly $2 higher week-on-week. WTI stood at $104.20. By Wednesday morning, after Trump said the US would end the conflict "very quickly," Brent slid to $108.90 and WTI to $102. Demand is holding. Gasoline consumption averaged 8.9 million bpd over the past four weeks, and total products supplied — the broadest proxy for US oil demand — averaged 20.2 million bpd, up 3.1% year-on-year. The EIA's base case assumes the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed until late May, with flows not returning to pre-conflict levels until later this year. Any delay to that timeline accelerates inventory depletion: JPMorgan has warned that US stocks could reach operationally stressed levels by early June. Friday's Cushing update and weekly export data will indicate whether the pace of draws is starting to ease or has further to run.