Kazakhstan Signs $12 Billion in EU Deals as Russian Transit Grip Persists
Tokayev's Brussels summit produced agreements worth over $12 billion, but 95% of Kazakh oil exports still flow through Russian infrastructure.
Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev wrapped up a visit to EU headquarters in Brussels on Monday (2026-06-23) with agreements and memoranda of understanding potentially valued at over $12 billion — the largest single package of EU-Kazakhstan commitments in recent years. The headline item was a 7.1 billion euro order for 50 Airbus passenger jets, a commercial deal that dominates the overall figure, alongside separate agreements on critical minerals and energy connectivity.5
The announcement landed alongside a Reuters report that Orion Critical Mineral Consortium, a US government-backed investment group, is seeking to raise $20 billion in funding to develop a pipeline of opportunities across Asia for critical minerals. Company officials quoted by Reuters put the total investment required at an estimated $2.4 trillion over the next 25 years.5
Both sets of commitments face a geopolitical constraint that limits how quickly they translate into changed commodity flows. Some 95% of Kazakhstan's oil exports transit Russian territory, according to Economist reporting, and 95% of its internet traffic passes through Russia as well. Russia is also set to build Kazakhstan's first nuclear power plant.1 That level of infrastructure dependence means a Brussels summit deal on energy connectivity does not quickly reroute actual barrels.
Europe has encountered the same problem further west. Azerbaijan, which supplied roughly 12 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe through the Southern Gas Corridor in 2023, has itself begun importing Russian gas — raising questions about the net diversification Brussels has actually achieved.4 The EU and Baku jointly target 20 billion cubic meters annually by 2030, a goal that depends on new upstream investments in Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz field. A source close to the consortium confirmed to Eurasianet that no new export contracts have been signed.3,4
The Middle Corridor overland route — Kazakhstan's main alternative to Russian transit for connecting Central Asian trade to Europe — offers a partial answer, but at a cost. China-Europe overland trade on that route grew from $8 billion in 2016 to $57 billion in 2023 on Chinese data, the Economist reported, yet total China-EU trade last year stood at €518 billion, meaning the corridor still carries a small fraction of overall volumes.2 The route remains around 35% more expensive than the Russian alternative, according to Korcan Tugrul, managing director in Istanbul of Rhenus, a German logistics firm. New rail capacity in Kyrgyzstan, backed by a $2.35 billion Chinese loan, is intended to close part of that gap but will take several years to complete.2
On Thursday (2026-06-25), ICE Brent crude front-month traded at $74.88 and ICE Endex TTF front-month gas at €40.86, little changed. The Brussels visit produced no immediate market reaction, consistent with the gap between diplomatic commitments and any physical rerouting of commodity flows.5
The bulk of the $12 billion headline remains the Airbus deal, a civil aviation transaction with no bearing on oil or gas routing. The critical minerals component, backed by Orion's $20 billion fundraising target, is at an early stage.5 For the summit's energy commitments to affect commodity markets, Astana would need to make concrete moves toward alternative export routes — above all expanded capacity on the Trans-Caspian corridor, the link to Azerbaijan's pipeline network that bypasses Russian territory.
With 95% of Kazakhstan's oil exports still transiting Russia, the distance between Monday's (2026-06-23) communiqué and any physical change in routing is unlikely to close on a timeframe that affects this year's crude balances.1