Nigeria Pipeline Operator Claims Stability as Country Eyes 2.5 MBPD Target

A Nigerian pipeline operator says the country can hit its 2.5 million barrel per day production goal, pointing to a disruption-free month on Trans Niger Pipeline routes across Bayelsa, Adebawa and Bisini as proof that operational gains are holding. Pipeline Infrastructure Nigeria Limited General Manager Akpos Mezeh made the case at a meeting in Yenagoa on Friday. The timing matters. Nigeria's output swung between 1.85 mbpd and 1.46 mbpd in April — a 400,000 bpd range that illustrates how quickly security or infrastructure setbacks can wipe out months of progress. Nigeria's current OPEC quota is 1.5 mbpd, which the country met at 99.2% in March — a 7.58% improvement on February, according to the Nigerian Upstream Regulatory Commission. NNPC reported a profit of N276 billion after tax for the same month. But the 1.5 mbpd quota sits 40% below the government's 2.5 mbpd ambition, meaning Nigeria would need to add roughly 1 mbpd to current production to close the gap. The track record is mixed. Output hit 1.54 mbpd in January 2025, briefly exceeded quota at 1.507 mbpd in July, then fell to 1.43 mbpd in August — about 66,000 bpd short of its allowance. NUPRC's One Million Barrels Initiative, launched in 2024, has pushed unreconciled daily output to between 1.7 and 1.83 mbpd by reactivating dormant fields and cutting approval timelines. The government has also approved 37 new evacuation routes to address theft, a chronic drag on Nigerian volumes. NNPC CEO Bashir Ojulari puts current production closer to 1.4 mbpd, below NUPRC's March figures. The stakes for Nigeria are high. Hydrocarbons account for roughly 90% of the country's foreign exchange earnings and 70% of government revenue. Reaching 2.5 mbpd would also underpin Nigeria's bid for a 2.0 mbpd OPEC+ quota in 2027, up from 1.5 mbpd today. PINL attributes its claimed stability to surveillance operations and engagement with communities, traditional rulers and security forces. Whether that holds is the core question. Decades of vandalism, theft and underinvestment have repeatedly pushed Nigerian output below quota, and a single pipeline incident would test PINL's optimism quickly. Deepwater will ultimately determine whether the 2.5 mbpd target is reachable. ExxonMobil has committed $1.5 billion to Nigerian upstream, Shell's Bonga North field is targeting a 2027 start-up, and TotalEnergies is developing the Ubeta gas project. Regulatory reforms under the 2021 Petroleum Industry Act have cut contracting cycles from 36 months to six, which could bring those timelines forward. Nigeria's production data through June will be the first real test of whether April's volatility was a blip or a warning that the operational gains are still fragile. Watch Trans Niger Pipeline uptime and deepwater FID announcements — those are the signals that will determine whether 2.5 mbpd is a credible target or a political number.