India leans on UAE's Hormuz-bypass crude as Abu Dhabi speeds its second pipeline

India leans on UAE's Hormuz-bypass crude as Abu Dhabi speeds its second pipeline With the Strait of Hormuz blocked for 11 weeks, India is leaning on UAE crude that skirts the chokepoint as Abu Dhabi accelerates a second bypass pipeline toward 2027. India's refiners are leaning on a crude route that never touches the Strait of Hormuz, and the UAE is moving to widen it. The head of ADNOC, Sultan Al Jaber, said on 2026-05-20 that the country's second pipeline bypassing the strait is about 50% complete, with delivery accelerated toward 2027.^2,3 He made the remarks at a live-streamed Atlantic Council event, among his most extensive comments since the war began.² The line already doing the work is the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, which can carry up to 1.8 million barrels per day to the Gulf of Oman without crossing the strait.² Al Jaber said the UAE made the decision more than a decade ago to invest in infrastructure that skirts the chokepoint.² For buyers like India, that pipeline is now the dependable way in. The reason the route matters is the blockade itself. About 20% of the world's oil and seaborne gas moved through the strait before the war, and the closure was approaching the 11-week mark as of 2026-05-21, the Guardian reported.¹ Crossings have not stopped completely. Three supertankers were moving through the strait on 2026-05-20 carrying 6 million barrels of crude that had waited in the Gulf for more than two months, CNBC reported.⁵ Those transits are the exception, not the norm. Al Jaber said global oil flows may take at least four months to recover to 80% of pre-conflict levels once the war ends, which leaves the bypass capacity as the supply India can actually count on.² The price tape has stopped pricing panic. ICE Brent crude front-month fell about 5% on 2026-05-20 after U.S. President Donald Trump again said the war would end "very quickly," CNBC reported.⁵ Investors stayed cautious, with no visible timeline for peace talks.^5,6 The UAE's standing as a supplier shifted in the same week. It announced on 2026-05-19 that it will leave OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, removing the quota that had capped its output just as Gulf crude is being rerouted, fool.com reported.⁴ For a country trying to push more barrels toward India, the timing frees its hand. The cushion behind those barrels is thin. Al Jaber put global spare capacity at around three million barrels a day and said upstream investment, at roughly $400 billion a year, is only enough to offset natural field decline.³ Not every desk reads the fade as relief. Citi said on 2026-05-19 it expected ICE Brent crude front-month to reach $120 a barrel in the near term, arguing the market underprices the risk of prolonged disruption, CNBC reported.⁵ PVM warned global oil stocks could fall to critically low levels.⁵ For India, the supply arithmetic stays tight. The Abu Dhabi pipeline is already running near capacity, and the second line will not move a barrel before 2027 even on the accelerated timeline.^2,3 Whether India can keep pulling more UAE crude depends on the strait reopening or that pipeline arriving early.²