European venture capital flows into US AI infrastructure as gas demand tightens

European venture capital flows into US AI infrastructure as gas demand tightens Europe's record venture-capital surge is helping fund US data-centre buildout, pulling on American power and gas while doing nothing to ease Europe's own supply. Last year venture-capital firms poured $85bn into European startups, up from $22bn a decade earlier, Dealogic data show.⁴ Much of that money is not staying on the continent. American firms' share of European tech acquisitions by value fell to 17% in 2023-25, from 35% in 2011-13, according to Dealogic, so more European capital is flowing straight into US markets, a large slice of it into artificial-intelligence infrastructure.⁴ For energy desks the destination is what counts, because that infrastructure runs on electricity and, increasingly, on gas.⁵ OpenAI and its partners Oracle and SoftBank began the first phase of Stargate in January, a $500bn AI-infrastructure project that President Donald Trump announced, sited in a part of Texas with plenty of wind and solar.⁵ In the AI era, appetites are measured in gigawatts, and the costs can run to $50bn per GW, McKinsey has estimated.⁵ The demand pull is already showing up in US power-sector results. Strong infrastructure earnings driven by AI-related load growth point to firmer gas burn.³ Net income for the quarter ending December 31 was $567m, up from $464m a year earlier, with electric-segment revenue more than 16% higher year-on-year.³ NYMEX Henry Hub front-month was last at $3.20. [live_prices] The mechanism is direct. More data-centre load means more gas-fired generation in grids where renewables alone cannot cover round-the-clock demand.⁵ For Europe, that US pull also tightens the Atlantic LNG arbitrage, since cargoes that might have sailed elsewhere can be drawn to better-paying markets, which puts a floor under TTF.¹ Not everyone expects the buildout to pay off. McKinsey found the success rate of AI pilot projects at firms it canvassed is below 15%, partner Pankaj Sachdeva said.⁵ That is a thin return for a sector now spending at telecom-bubble velocity. Russia is not filling any gap. Its natural-gas production fell 3.2% to about 334.8 billion cubic metres by June, federal statistics show, while LNG output dropped 5.1% to roughly 16.5m tonnes.² Exports via the Power of Siberia pipeline to China are projected to rise more than 20% this year to a maximum 38 bcm a year, but that volume is committed to Beijing and does nothing for European supply.² The bilateral deals on offer are small by comparison. Equinor signed a five-year agreement in May (2026-05-18) to supply Netherlands-based Eneco up to 0.5 bcm of gas a year from February 1, 2026.³ It is a useful contract, and a rounding error against the scale of US data-centre demand that European capital is helping to finance.³ Montel senior analyst Huangluolun Zhou has noted that the AI boom is driving rapid, localised growth in data-centre demand, with consequences for European grids and policy.¹ The same money leaving Europe is building load in the US that then competes with Europe for the same LNG cargoes.¹ Gas traders will track the pace of US data-centre load against new supply.¹ If demand growth stays ahead of fresh gas, Henry Hub has room to firm, and through the Atlantic arbitrage, so does TTF.