Solar on Track to Overtake Coal as World's Biggest Power Source by 2032 — BNEF

Solar on Track to Overtake Coal as World's Biggest Power Source by 2032 — BNEF BloombergNEF forecasts solar will surpass coal, oil and gas within the decade, reshaping global generator fuel demand. Coal still generates roughly 35% of the world's electricity, but BloombergNEF expects solar to become the largest single power source by 2032, overtaking coal, oil and natural gas.^3,2 The shift is driven by solar prices that have already undercut fossil fuels in most markets and are forecast to drop another 30% by 2035, according to the research group's latest long-term outlook.^3,2 That matters for fuel markets because Asia — China and India above all — still accounts for the bulk of global coal burn. Yet even there, the economics are turning. Carbon Brief analysis showed coal-fired generation fell in both China and India in 2025, the first simultaneous year-on-year drop in half a century.⁶ Each nation added record amounts of clean energy last year, with solar leading the additions.⁶ The International Energy Agency's Electricity 2026 report forecasts renewable output will grow by roughly 1,000 terawatt-hours annually through 2030, with solar PV alone contributing more than 600 TWh per year.¹ The share of renewables and nuclear in the global power mix is set to hit 50% by the end of the decade, the IEA said, while natural gas generation also continues to grow.¹ Coal's position is being eroded from both sides. On one side, cheap solar and wind are eating into its dispatch share during daylight hours. On the other, gas plants — more flexible and lower-emission — are capturing the evening ramp and backup role that coal used to fill.¹ For gas traders, the pattern reinforces a structural demand floor in power markets even as renewables scale, at least until long-duration storage becomes cost-competitive. That storage piece is still early. BloombergNEF expects gas and coal to supply 51% of incremental generation for data centers through 2050 because of their 24/7 reliability.³ But big batteries are getting attention: Google included $1 billion worth of 100-hour iron-air batteries from Form Energy in a recent data center project.³ The magnitude of China's solar build is hard to overstate. More than 680 GW of solar capacity is already installed in China — nearly seven times Britain's entire generating fleet — covering an area the size of Rhode Island if placed edge-to-edge.⁴ The world consumed just over 30,000 TWh of electricity last year.⁴ India presents a more complex picture. It still gets nearly three-quarters of its electricity from coal and has 39 new coal-fired plants under construction.⁵ Prime Minister Modi has set 2030 targets to slash emissions by one billion tonnes from their current trajectory and to increase non-fossil power generation.⁵ The tension between those goals and the construction pipeline will define India's coal burn trajectory for the next decade. For gas traders and power analysts, the key number to track is not just solar additions but the retirement rate of the 2,100 GW of coal capacity still operating globally.² With renewables already cheaper than coal in most markets, the economic incentive to close plants is clear.² The questions are how fast regulators allow retirements in China and India, and whether gas can capture the flexible generation role that coal is vacating faster than batteries can fill it.