Goldman Sachs adds SMRs to uranium model, projects 46 GW by 2045

Goldman Sachs adds SMRs to uranium model, projects 46 GW by 2045 The bank's first formal SMR forecast lifts nuclear generation estimates 6% and opens a new long-dated demand channel for uranium. Goldman Sachs has folded small modular reactors into its uranium supply and demand model for the first time, projecting cumulative deployments of nearly 46 GW by 2045.⁵ The addition lifts the bank's 2045 nuclear generation forecast by roughly 6% and creates a fresh demand leg for uranium just as supply chains face pressure from utility-scale projects already under construction.⁵ Governments on both sides of the Atlantic have set aggressive targets. In the United States, the Trump administration is calling for a quadrupling of domestic capacity to 400 GW by 2050.³ In June (2026), the European Commission unveiled a roadmap forecasting nuclear capacity rising from 100 GW to as much as 145 GW by the same year.³ Barclays predicts that between 2030 and 2050, net nuclear capacity outside China and Russia will probably increase by more than half, to over 450 GW, with SMRs accounting for 40-60% of that total, implying a $1 trillion market.³ SMRs are defined as reactors with a rated output of about 300 MW or less, designed for factory fabrication and modular assembly on site.^2,4 Microreactors, a subset, generally have a capacity of 20 MW or less and can run on the grid, off it, or as part of a microgrid.² Their smaller footprint allows siting in places unsuitable for large conventional plants.⁴ Several designs use high-assay low-enriched uranium, enriched between 5% and under 20% uranium-235, a fuel with no commercial-scale production yet in the United States.² There lies the catch. Even as Goldman projects accelerating SMR deployment, the HALEU supply chain remains embryonic, and traders watching uranium will need to gauge whether bank demand projections outrun actual fuel availability.^2,5 In July (2026), Britain's government made the final decision to proceed with Sizewell C, two giant reactors that could cost over £38 billion.³ That project takes the conventional route, large-scale light-water reactors, and is likely to absorb a substantial share of available forging and engineering capacity.³ SMR startups have raised more than $2 billion since 2021, according to the Economist report that outlined the capacity targets.³ That sum is modest relative to the capital required for serial production.³ Rick Perry, the former US energy secretary, launched a "Make America nuclear again" initiative on July 4th (2026), aiming to accelerate permitting and federal support.³ Coal, still the world's largest source of electricity at roughly 35% of global supply, will be the primary competitor for nuclear's baseload role.¹ More than 2,000 GW of coal capacity remains operational globally, and while renewables have undercut coal on cost in most markets, retirement timelines remain slow.¹ If SMRs reach commercial scale in the 2030s, they could offer a dispatchable zero-carbon alternative that coal retirements alone have not yet triggered.¹ For uranium traders, the Goldman revision provides a new reference for long-dated demand.⁵ Whether reactor orders translate into fuel contracts is the link that remains unformed.⁵ None of the SMR projections will move uranium demand until a single unit reaches financial close and breaks ground.⁵ Until then, the 46 GW is a forecast, not a physical commitment, and that is what commodity desks will track through 2027.⁵