Russia lifts gas flows to Uzbekistan as European sales keep shrinking

Russia lifts gas flows to Uzbekistan as European sales keep shrinking Russian gas exports to Uzbekistan rose 15% in 2025, one more sign of Moscow's search for buyers as its largest market closes. Russia pumped 6.48 billion cubic metres of natural gas to Uzbekistan in 2025, a 15% increase on the prior year.² The gain is small next to what Moscow has lost. Russian gas made up just 18% of EU imports last year, down from 45% in 2021, and the new buyers Russia has lined up have not closed that gap.¹ The shortfall shows up in the production numbers. Russia's gas output fell 3.2% in the first half of 2025, to about 334.8 bcm by June, according to federal statistics. LNG production dropped 5.1% over the same period, to around 16.5 million tonnes.² The one clear gain is the Power of Siberia 1 pipeline to China, where flows are projected to rise more than 20% this year and reach the line's maximum of 38 bcm a year. Even at full capacity, that route replaces only a slice of the volumes Russia once sent west.² The larger project, Power of Siberia 2, is still unbuilt. The planned 2,600-kilometre line would carry 50 bcm a year from Russia's Yamal fields to China via Mongolia.³ Moscow and Beijing signed a legally binding memorandum to advance construction during Putin's summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing in May (week of 2026-05-18), though key terms remain unresolved.⁴ The sticking point is price. China has pushed for terms near Russia's domestic rate of around $120 to $130 per 1,000 cubic metres, while Moscow wants pricing closer to its existing Power of Siberia 1 contracts. That distance has kept the project stalled for years.⁴ The working line into China is making headway. Power of Siberia 1 delivered 38 bcm to China in 2025, and Putin and Xi agreed in September 2025 to lift its capacity to 44 bcm a year.³ Russia's oil trade looks healthier than its gas book. Moscow now expects 2025 oil exports of 240.1 million tonnes, up from an earlier estimate of 229.7 million tonnes.¹ Crude moves by tanker; gas still waits on a pipeline that is under negotiation.³ The next test is whether Moscow and Beijing can settle the Power of Siberia 2 price gap. Until they do, the pipeline meant to absorb what Europe no longer takes stays on paper, and Russia's gas output keeps falling.^4,2